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Bundesliga

Referee: Harm Osmers

RB Leipzig

U S S U U

2–1

Full-time

Augsburg

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Augsburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 37%

40%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

40%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

40%

Points per game

1,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

2,6

2,0

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

57% Possession 43%

17 Shots 6

10 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 7. · Augsburg 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	5	0	0	+14	15
2	Dortmund	5	4	0	1	+12	12
3	FC Koln	5	3	2	0	+7	11
4	M'gladbach	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Hertha	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	RB Leipzig	5	2	3	0	+5	9
8	Mainz	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Hoffenheim	5	1	4	0	+1	7
10	Leverkusen	5	2	1	2	+1	7
11	Augsburg	5	2	1	2	-2	7
12	Freiburg	5	2	0	3	-3	6
13	Wolfsburg	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Darmstadt	5	1	1	3	-8	4
15	Werder Bremen	5	1	0	4	-10	3
16	FC Ingolstadt 04	5	0	1	4	-8	1
17	Hamburg	5	0	1	4	-8	1
18	Schalke 04	5	0	0	5	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+11	9
2	Dortmund	3	3	0	0	+9	9
3	M'gladbach	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	FC Koln	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Hertha	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Hoffenheim	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Leverkusen	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Darmstadt	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Werder Bremen	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Wolfsburg	2	0	1	1	-4	1
16	Hamburg	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Schalke 04	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Mainz	3	2	0	1	+2	6
3	RB Leipzig	3	1	2	0	+4	5
4	FC Koln	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Wolfsburg	3	1	1	1	+1	4
6	Augsburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Hertha	3	1	1	1	-1	4
8	Dortmund	2	1	0	1	+3	3
9	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Leverkusen	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Hoffenheim	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	3	0	1	2	-4	1
14	Hamburg	2	0	0	2	-3	0
15	Schalke 04	3	0	0	3	-4	0
16	Freiburg	3	0	0	3	-6	0
17	Werder Bremen	2	0	0	2	-9	0
18	Darmstadt	3	0	0	3	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.