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Championship

Referee: Geoff Eltringham

Bristol City

T S T U U

1–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

U U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

This season — Championship · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

75%

Both score Ø 75%

75%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%

12 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 11. · Aston Villa 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Ipswich	4	4	0	0	+5	12
3	Wolves	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Nott'm Forest	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Leeds	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	QPR	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Preston	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Derby	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Middlesbrough	4	2	0	2	+1	6
10	Sheffield United	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Sunderland	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Sheffield Weds	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Hull	4	1	1	2	+1	4
15	Birmingham	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-2	4
17	Aston Villa	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Reading	4	1	1	2	-2	4
19	Fulham	4	0	3	1	-1	3
20	Barnsley	4	1	0	3	-3	3
21	Burton Albion	4	1	0	3	-5	3
22	Millwall	4	0	2	2	-2	2
23	Bolton	4	0	2	2	-2	2
24	Brentford	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	QPR	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Nott'm Forest	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Preston	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Reading	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Hull	2	1	0	1	+2	3
13	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Burton Albion	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Derby	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
20	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-2	1
24	Bolton	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Sunderland	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Fulham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Bolton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Preston	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	QPR	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Middlesbrough	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Birmingham	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Barnsley	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Brentford	2	0	0	2	-3	0
21	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Reading	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
24	Burton Albion	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.