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Championship

Referee: Paul Tierney

Sheffield Weds

U S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Derby

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sheffield Weds Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

This season — Championship · 41/43 matches

Win Ø 45%

49%

40%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

44%

37%

Both score Ø 45%

56%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%

13 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 4

1 Offside 5

5 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sheffield Weds 7. · Derby 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	44	28	8	8	+35	92
2	Newcastle	43	26	7	10	+37	85
3	Reading	40	23	7	10	+7	76
4	Huddersfield	39	23	6	10	+7	75
5	Leeds	43	22	7	14	+15	73
6	Fulham	41	19	13	9	+20	70
7	Sheffield Weds	41	20	9	12	+11	69
8	Norwich	44	19	9	16	+12	66
9	Derby	43	17	12	14	+3	63
10	Preston	43	16	13	14	+5	61
11	Brentford	43	17	9	17	+10	60
12	Aston Villa	43	15	13	15	-1	58
13	Cardiff	43	16	10	17	-2	58
14	Barnsley	43	15	12	16	+1	57
15	Ipswich	43	13	16	14	-5	55
16	Wolves	42	15	9	18	-2	54
17	QPR	43	14	8	21	-10	50
18	Bristol City	43	13	9	21	-7	48
19	Burton Albion	43	12	12	19	-13	48
20	Birmingham	43	11	14	18	-21	47
21	Nott'm Forest	43	12	9	22	-12	45
22	Blackburn	43	10	14	19	-15	44
23	Wigan	43	10	10	23	-16	40
24	Rotherham	43	4	6	33	-59	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	22	17	3	2	+33	54
2	Reading	21	14	5	2	+17	47
3	Norwich	22	14	4	4	+29	46
4	Leeds	22	14	3	5	+16	45
5	Huddersfield	19	14	2	3	+14	44
6	Newcastle	21	13	3	5	+20	42
7	Sheffield Weds	20	13	2	5	+12	41
8	Aston Villa	21	11	7	3	+12	40
9	Preston	22	11	5	6	+14	38
10	Derby	22	10	8	4	+11	38
11	Cardiff	22	11	4	7	+7	37
12	Brentford	21	10	5	6	+17	35
13	Fulham	21	9	7	5	+8	34
14	Nott'm Forest	21	10	4	7	+8	34
15	Ipswich	22	8	10	4	+7	34
16	Bristol City	21	10	4	7	+7	34
17	Blackburn	22	7	8	7	-2	29
18	Barnsley	22	6	10	6	-1	28
19	Burton Albion	21	8	4	9	-1	28
20	QPR	22	8	4	10	-4	28
21	Birmingham	22	7	5	10	-8	26
22	Wolves	20	7	3	10	-5	24
23	Wigan	21	5	6	10	-7	21
24	Rotherham	21	4	5	12	-12	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	22	13	4	5	+17	43
2	Brighton	22	11	5	6	+2	38
3	Fulham	20	10	6	4	+12	36
4	Huddersfield	20	9	4	7	-7	31
5	Wolves	22	8	6	8	+3	30
6	Barnsley	21	9	2	10	+2	29
7	Reading	19	9	2	8	-10	29
8	Leeds	21	8	4	9	-1	28
9	Sheffield Weds	21	7	7	7	-1	28
10	Brentford	22	7	4	11	-7	25
11	Derby	21	7	4	10	-8	25
12	Preston	21	5	8	8	-9	23
13	QPR	21	6	4	11	-6	22
14	Cardiff	21	5	6	10	-9	21
15	Ipswich	21	5	6	10	-12	21
16	Birmingham	21	4	9	8	-13	21
17	Burton Albion	22	4	8	10	-12	20
18	Norwich	22	5	5	12	-17	20
19	Wigan	22	5	4	13	-9	19
20	Aston Villa	22	4	6	12	-13	18
21	Blackburn	21	3	6	12	-13	15
22	Bristol City	22	3	5	14	-14	14
23	Nott'm Forest	22	2	5	15	-20	11
24	Rotherham	22	0	1	21	-47	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.