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Championship

Referee: Jeremy Simpson

Derby

S U T U S

4–2

Full-time

Fulham

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Fulham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

This season — Championship · 39/37 matches

Win Ø 41%

38%

43%

Points per game

1,4

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

51%

Both score Ø 45%

28%

62%

Average goals

2,1

2,9

Scored

1,1

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

25% Possession 75%

11 Shots 12

10 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

2 Corners 2

5 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 10. · Fulham 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	39	25	6	8	+39	81
2	Brighton	39	24	8	7	+31	80
3	Leeds	39	21	6	12	+15	69
4	Huddersfield	35	21	5	9	+5	68
5	Reading	36	20	7	9	+8	67
6	Fulham	37	16	13	8	+16	61
7	Preston	39	15	13	11	+6	58
8	Norwich	39	16	9	14	+7	57
9	Sheffield Weds	37	16	9	12	+6	57
10	Derby	39	15	11	13	+4	56
11	Aston Villa	39	14	12	13	+2	54
12	Brentford	39	15	8	16	+5	53
13	Barnsley	39	14	10	15	+0	52
14	Cardiff	39	14	9	16	-3	51
15	QPR	39	14	8	17	-6	50
16	Wolves	38	13	9	16	+0	48
17	Ipswich	39	10	16	13	-9	46
18	Birmingham	39	11	13	15	-16	46
19	Burton Albion	39	11	11	17	-13	44
20	Nott'm Forest	39	11	9	19	-11	42
21	Bristol City	39	11	8	20	-5	41
22	Blackburn	39	9	13	17	-12	40
23	Wigan	39	8	10	21	-14	34
24	Rotherham	39	4	5	30	-55	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	20	15	3	2	+30	48
2	Leeds	20	13	3	4	+14	42
3	Reading	19	12	5	2	+14	41
4	Norwich	19	12	4	3	+23	40
5	Newcastle	19	12	2	5	+19	38
6	Huddersfield	17	12	2	3	+10	38
7	Aston Villa	19	10	7	2	+13	37
8	Preston	20	10	5	5	+11	35
9	Sheffield Weds	18	11	2	5	+10	35
10	Derby	20	9	7	4	+9	34
11	Nott'm Forest	19	9	4	6	+7	31
12	Cardiff	20	9	4	7	+5	31
13	Brentford	19	8	5	6	+11	29
14	Fulham	19	7	7	5	+4	28
15	Bristol City	19	8	4	7	+4	28
16	Ipswich	20	6	10	4	+2	28
17	Blackburn	20	7	7	6	+0	28
18	QPR	20	8	4	8	-2	28
19	Burton Albion	19	8	3	8	+0	27
20	Barnsley	20	6	8	6	-1	26
21	Birmingham	20	7	5	8	-5	26
22	Wolves	18	6	3	9	-4	21
23	Rotherham	19	4	4	11	-10	16
24	Wigan	19	3	6	10	-9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	20	13	4	3	+20	43
2	Fulham	18	9	6	3	+12	33
3	Brighton	19	9	5	5	+1	32
4	Huddersfield	18	9	3	6	-5	30
5	Wolves	20	7	6	7	+4	27
6	Leeds	19	8	3	8	+1	27
7	Barnsley	19	8	2	9	+1	26
8	Reading	17	8	2	7	-6	26
9	Brentford	20	7	3	10	-6	24
10	Preston	19	5	8	6	-5	23
11	QPR	19	6	4	9	-4	22
12	Sheffield Weds	19	5	7	7	-4	22
13	Derby	19	6	4	9	-5	22
14	Cardiff	19	5	5	9	-8	20
15	Birmingham	19	4	8	7	-11	20
16	Wigan	20	5	4	11	-5	19
17	Ipswich	19	4	6	9	-11	18
18	Aston Villa	20	4	5	11	-11	17
19	Burton Albion	20	3	8	9	-13	17
20	Norwich	20	4	5	11	-16	17
21	Bristol City	20	3	4	13	-9	13
22	Blackburn	19	2	6	11	-12	12
23	Nott'm Forest	20	2	5	13	-18	11
24	Rotherham	20	0	1	19	-45	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.