Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Wigan
Cardiff
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Brighton
|
44 | 28 | 8 | 8 | +35 | 92 |
| 2 |
Newcastle
|
43 | 26 | 7 | 10 | +37 | 85 |
| 3 |
Reading
|
40 | 23 | 7 | 10 | +7 | 76 |
| 4 |
Huddersfield
|
39 | 23 | 6 | 10 | +7 | 75 |
| 5 |
Leeds
|
43 | 22 | 7 | 14 | +15 | 73 |
| 6 |
Fulham
|
41 | 19 | 13 | 9 | +20 | 70 |
| 7 |
Sheffield Weds
|
41 | 20 | 9 | 12 | +11 | 69 |
| 8 |
Norwich
|
44 | 19 | 9 | 16 | +12 | 66 |
| 9 |
Derby
|
43 | 17 | 12 | 14 | +3 | 63 |
| 10 |
Preston
|
43 | 16 | 13 | 14 | +5 | 61 |
| 11 |
Brentford
|
43 | 17 | 9 | 17 | +10 | 60 |
| 12 |
Aston Villa
|
43 | 15 | 13 | 15 | -1 | 58 |
| 13 |
Cardiff
|
43 | 16 | 10 | 17 | -2 | 58 |
| 14 |
Barnsley
|
43 | 15 | 12 | 16 | +1 | 57 |
| 15 |
Ipswich
|
43 | 13 | 16 | 14 | -5 | 55 |
| 16 |
Wolves
|
42 | 15 | 9 | 18 | -2 | 54 |
| 17 |
QPR
|
43 | 14 | 8 | 21 | -10 | 50 |
| 18 |
Bristol City
|
43 | 13 | 9 | 21 | -7 | 48 |
| 19 |
Burton Albion
|
43 | 12 | 12 | 19 | -13 | 48 |
| 20 |
Birmingham
|
43 | 11 | 14 | 18 | -21 | 47 |
| 21 |
Nott'm Forest
|
43 | 12 | 9 | 22 | -12 | 45 |
| 22 |
Blackburn
|
43 | 10 | 14 | 19 | -15 | 44 |
| 23 |
Wigan
|
43 | 10 | 10 | 23 | -16 | 40 |
| 24 |
Rotherham
|
43 | 4 | 6 | 33 | -59 | 18 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Coach: G. Barrow
B. Amos
G
Coach: N. Warnock
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Brighton
Wigan
Wigan
Barnsley
Wigan
Rotherham
Ipswich
Wigan
Newcastle
Wigan
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.