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Championship

Referee: Tim Robinson

Brentford

T S S S T

4–0

Full-time

Derby

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

This season — Championship · 41/41 matches

Win Ø 40%

39%

41%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

56%

37%

Both score Ø 44%

56%

32%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

11 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 6

0 Offside 4

7 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 12. · Derby 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	41	26	8	7	+34	86
2	Newcastle	41	26	6	9	+39	84
3	Leeds	41	22	6	13	+16	72
4	Huddersfield	37	22	5	10	+6	71
5	Reading	38	21	7	10	+4	70
6	Fulham	39	17	13	9	+16	64
7	Sheffield Weds	39	18	9	12	+9	63
8	Derby	41	17	11	13	+7	62
9	Preston	41	16	13	12	+8	61
10	Norwich	41	17	9	15	+10	60
11	Aston Villa	41	15	13	13	+3	58
12	Brentford	41	16	8	17	+6	56
13	Barnsley	42	15	11	16	+1	56
14	Cardiff	41	15	10	16	-2	55
15	Wolves	40	14	9	17	-1	51
16	QPR	41	14	8	19	-8	50
17	Ipswich	41	11	16	14	-8	49
18	Birmingham	41	11	13	17	-19	46
19	Nott'm Forest	41	12	9	20	-10	45
20	Burton Albion	41	11	12	18	-14	45
21	Bristol City	41	12	8	21	-8	44
22	Wigan	42	10	10	22	-15	40
23	Blackburn	41	9	13	19	-16	40
24	Rotherham	41	4	5	32	-58	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	21	16	3	2	+32	51
2	Leeds	21	14	3	4	+17	45
3	Reading	20	13	5	2	+16	44
4	Norwich	20	13	4	3	+29	43
5	Newcastle	20	13	2	5	+20	41
6	Huddersfield	18	13	2	3	+13	41
7	Aston Villa	20	11	7	2	+14	40
8	Preston	21	11	5	5	+16	38
9	Sheffield Weds	19	12	2	5	+11	38
10	Derby	21	10	7	4	+11	37
11	Nott'm Forest	20	10	4	6	+9	34
12	Cardiff	21	10	4	7	+6	34
13	Brentford	20	9	5	6	+13	32
14	Fulham	20	8	7	5	+6	31
15	Bristol City	20	9	4	7	+6	31
16	Ipswich	21	7	10	4	+5	31
17	Burton Albion	20	8	4	8	+0	28
18	Blackburn	21	7	7	7	-2	28
19	QPR	21	8	4	9	-3	28
20	Barnsley	21	6	9	6	-1	27
21	Birmingham	21	7	5	9	-6	26
22	Wolves	19	7	3	9	-3	24
23	Wigan	21	5	6	10	-7	21
24	Rotherham	20	4	4	12	-12	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	21	13	4	4	+19	43
2	Brighton	20	10	5	5	+2	35
3	Fulham	19	9	6	4	+10	33
4	Huddersfield	19	9	3	7	-7	30
5	Barnsley	21	9	2	10	+2	29
6	Wolves	21	7	6	8	+2	27
7	Leeds	20	8	3	9	-1	27
8	Reading	18	8	2	8	-12	26
9	Sheffield Weds	20	6	7	7	-2	25
10	Derby	20	7	4	9	-4	25
11	Brentford	21	7	3	11	-7	24
12	Preston	20	5	8	7	-8	23
13	QPR	20	6	4	10	-5	22
14	Cardiff	20	5	6	9	-8	21
15	Birmingham	20	4	8	8	-13	20
16	Wigan	21	5	4	12	-8	19
17	Aston Villa	21	4	6	11	-11	18
18	Ipswich	20	4	6	10	-13	18
19	Burton Albion	21	3	8	10	-14	17
20	Norwich	21	4	5	12	-19	17
21	Bristol City	21	3	4	14	-14	13
22	Blackburn	20	2	6	12	-14	12
23	Nott'm Forest	21	2	5	14	-19	11
24	Rotherham	21	0	1	20	-46	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.