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Championship

Referee: Lee Mason

Derby

S T S S S

1–1

Full-time

Sheffield Weds

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Sheffield Weds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

This season — Championship · 41/40 matches

Win Ø 46%

46%

45%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

41%

53%

Both score Ø 53%

46%

60%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

12 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 7

0 Free kicks against 0

5 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 5. · Sheffield Weds 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	44	24	15	5	+33	87
2	Middlesbrough	43	26	8	9	+32	86
3	Brighton	41	23	13	5	+28	82
4	Hull	39	22	9	8	+35	75
5	Derby	41	19	13	9	+18	70
6	Sheffield Weds	40	18	13	9	+19	67
7	Cardiff	43	16	16	11	+7	64
8	Ipswich	43	16	14	13	+0	62
9	Birmingham	43	16	12	15	+4	60
10	Preston	44	14	16	14	-1	58
11	Leeds	43	14	15	14	-7	57
12	QPR	43	13	17	13	+0	56
13	Brentford	42	16	8	18	-3	56
14	Wolves	43	13	14	16	-6	53
15	Reading	43	13	12	18	-4	51
16	Huddersfield	43	13	11	19	-3	50
17	Blackburn	43	11	15	17	-3	48
18	Nott'm Forest	43	11	15	17	-7	48
19	Fulham	43	11	15	17	-9	48
20	Rotherham	43	13	9	21	-13	48
21	Bristol City	43	12	12	19	-20	48
22	Milton Keynes Dons	43	9	12	22	-25	39
23	Charlton	43	8	13	22	-36	37
24	Bolton	43	4	15	24	-39	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	21	16	3	2	+26	51
2	Burnley	22	14	6	2	+23	48
3	Brighton	21	15	3	3	+22	48
4	Hull	18	13	5	0	+31	44
5	Sheffield Weds	21	12	7	2	+22	43
6	Cardiff	21	11	8	2	+12	41
7	Derby	20	11	6	3	+18	39
8	QPR	21	9	8	4	+11	35
9	Reading	22	8	9	5	+6	33
10	Ipswich	22	8	8	6	+3	32
11	Brentford	22	9	4	9	+0	31
12	Birmingham	22	9	4	9	+0	31
13	Preston	22	7	9	6	+0	30
14	Rotherham	22	8	6	8	-2	30
15	Leeds	22	7	8	7	-4	29
16	Blackburn	21	7	7	7	+4	28
17	Nott'm Forest	22	7	7	8	-1	28
18	Wolves	21	6	9	6	-1	27
19	Huddersfield	21	7	5	9	+4	26
20	Fulham	21	7	5	9	+1	26
21	Bristol City	22	6	7	9	-4	25
22	Milton Keynes Dons	21	7	3	11	-12	24
23	Bolton	22	4	11	7	-3	23
24	Charlton	21	5	8	8	-7	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	22	10	9	3	+10	39
2	Middlesbrough	22	10	5	7	+6	35
3	Brighton	20	8	10	2	+6	34
4	Hull	21	9	4	8	+4	31
5	Derby	21	8	7	6	+0	31
6	Ipswich	21	8	6	7	-3	30
7	Birmingham	21	7	8	6	+4	29
8	Preston	22	7	7	8	-1	28
9	Leeds	21	7	7	7	-3	28
10	Wolves	22	7	5	10	-5	26
11	Brentford	20	7	4	9	-3	25
12	Sheffield Weds	19	6	6	7	-3	24
13	Huddersfield	22	6	6	10	-7	24
14	Cardiff	22	5	8	9	-5	23
15	Bristol City	21	6	5	10	-16	23
16	Fulham	22	4	10	8	-10	22
17	QPR	22	4	9	9	-11	21
18	Nott'm Forest	21	4	8	9	-6	20
19	Blackburn	22	4	8	10	-7	20
20	Reading	21	5	3	13	-10	18
21	Rotherham	21	5	3	13	-11	18
22	Milton Keynes Dons	22	2	9	11	-13	15
23	Charlton	22	3	5	14	-29	14
24	Bolton	21	0	4	17	-36	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.