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Premier League

Referee: Robert Madley

Liverpool

T U T S T

3–1

Full-time

Arsenal

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 26/25 matches

Win Ø 57%

54%

60%

Points per game

1,9

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

58%

68%

Both score Ø 67%

65%

68%

Average goals

3,4

3,3

Scored

2,1

2,2

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

53% Possession 47%

18 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 3

5 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 5. · Arsenal 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	26	20	3	3	+36	63
2	Tottenham	26	15	8	3	+32	53
3	Man City	25	16	4	5	+22	52
4	Arsenal	25	15	5	5	+26	50
5	Liverpool	26	14	7	5	+22	49
6	Man United	26	13	10	3	+17	49
7	Everton	26	12	8	6	+15	44
8	West Brom	27	11	7	9	+2	40
9	Stoke	27	9	8	10	-8	35
10	Southampton	26	9	6	11	-2	33
11	West Ham	26	9	6	11	-9	33
12	Burnley	27	9	4	14	-10	31
13	Watford	27	8	7	12	-14	31
14	Bournemouth	27	7	6	14	-15	27
15	Leicester	27	7	6	14	-15	27
16	Swansea	27	8	3	16	-24	27
17	Crystal Palace	27	7	4	16	-11	25
18	Middlesbrough	27	4	10	13	-11	22
19	Hull	27	5	6	16	-29	21
20	Sunderland	26	5	4	17	-24	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	13	12	0	1	+28	36
2	Tottenham	13	11	2	0	+25	35
3	Arsenal	13	9	2	2	+13	29
4	Burnley	14	9	2	3	+10	29
5	Everton	13	8	4	1	+17	28
6	Liverpool	12	8	3	1	+20	27
7	West Brom	14	8	2	4	+7	26
8	Man City	12	7	4	1	+10	25
9	Man United	14	6	7	1	+10	25
10	Leicester	14	7	3	4	+4	24
11	Stoke	14	6	5	3	+3	23
12	Watford	14	5	4	5	-2	19
13	Bournemouth	13	5	3	5	+0	18
14	Southampton	12	5	3	4	+0	18
15	West Ham	13	5	3	5	-8	18
16	Swansea	14	5	2	7	-9	17
17	Hull	13	4	4	5	-5	16
18	Middlesbrough	13	3	4	6	-3	13
19	Sunderland	13	3	3	7	-10	12
20	Crystal Palace	13	3	1	9	-6	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	9	0	4	+12	27
2	Chelsea	13	8	3	2	+8	27
3	Man United	12	7	3	2	+7	24
4	Liverpool	14	6	4	4	+2	22
5	Arsenal	12	6	3	3	+13	21
6	Tottenham	13	4	6	3	+7	18
7	Everton	13	4	4	5	-2	16
8	West Ham	13	4	3	6	-1	15
9	Southampton	14	4	3	7	-2	15
10	Crystal Palace	14	4	3	7	-5	15
11	West Brom	13	3	5	5	-5	14
12	Stoke	13	3	3	7	-11	12
13	Watford	13	3	3	7	-12	12
14	Swansea	13	3	1	9	-15	10
15	Middlesbrough	14	1	6	7	-8	9
16	Bournemouth	14	2	3	9	-15	9
17	Sunderland	13	2	1	10	-14	7
18	Hull	14	1	2	11	-24	5
19	Leicester	13	0	3	10	-19	3
20	Burnley	13	0	2	11	-20	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.