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Premier League

Referee: Lee Mason

Man City

T S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Burnley

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 50%

63%

37%

Points per game

2,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

68%

53%

Both score Ø 55%

68%

42%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

14 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 8

3 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 5. · Burnley 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	19	16	1	2	+29	49
2	Liverpool	19	13	4	2	+25	43
3	Arsenal	19	12	4	3	+22	40
4	Tottenham	19	11	6	2	+23	39
5	Man City	19	12	3	4	+18	39
6	Man United	19	10	6	3	+10	36
7	Everton	19	7	6	6	+2	27
8	West Brom	19	7	5	7	+2	26
9	Southampton	19	6	6	7	-3	24
10	Bournemouth	19	7	3	9	-5	24
11	Burnley	19	7	2	10	-8	23
12	West Ham	19	6	4	9	-10	22
13	Watford	19	6	4	9	-11	22
14	Leicester	20	5	6	9	-7	21
15	Stoke	19	5	6	8	-10	21
16	Middlesbrough	20	4	7	9	-5	19
17	Crystal Palace	19	4	4	11	-6	16
18	Sunderland	19	4	2	13	-18	14
19	Hull	19	3	4	12	-25	13
20	Swansea	19	3	3	13	-23	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	10	9	0	1	+22	27
2	Liverpool	9	7	2	0	+19	23
3	Tottenham	9	7	2	0	+14	23
4	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+11	23
5	Burnley	11	7	1	3	+8	22
6	Man United	10	5	4	1	+8	19
7	Man City	9	5	3	1	+8	18
8	Leicester	10	5	3	2	+6	18
9	Everton	9	4	4	1	+5	16
10	Bournemouth	9	5	1	3	+4	16
11	Southampton	10	4	3	3	-1	15
12	West Brom	9	4	2	3	+3	14
13	Watford	10	4	2	4	-2	14
14	West Ham	9	4	2	3	-5	14
15	Stoke	9	3	3	3	-2	12
16	Middlesbrough	10	3	2	5	-1	11
17	Sunderland	9	3	1	5	-4	10
18	Hull	10	2	3	5	-9	9
19	Swansea	10	2	2	6	-9	8
20	Crystal Palace	9	2	1	6	-1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	9	7	1	1	+7	22
2	Man City	10	7	0	3	+10	21
3	Liverpool	10	6	2	2	+6	20
4	Arsenal	9	5	2	2	+11	17
5	Man United	9	5	2	2	+2	17
6	Tottenham	10	4	4	2	+9	16
7	West Brom	10	3	3	4	-1	12
8	Everton	10	3	2	5	-3	11
9	Southampton	9	2	3	4	-2	9
10	Crystal Palace	10	2	3	5	-5	9
11	Stoke	10	2	3	5	-8	9
12	Middlesbrough	10	1	5	4	-4	8
13	West Ham	10	2	2	6	-5	8
14	Bournemouth	10	2	2	6	-9	8
15	Watford	9	2	2	5	-9	8
16	Swansea	9	1	1	7	-14	4
17	Sunderland	10	1	1	8	-14	4
18	Hull	9	1	1	7	-16	4
19	Leicester	10	0	3	7	-13	3
20	Burnley	8	0	1	7	-16	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.