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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Burnley

T T S T T

1–0

Full-time

Middlesbrough

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 27%

29%

24%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

53%

41%

Both score Ø 44%

41%

47%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

45% Possession 55%

6 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 3

3 Offside 4

17 Free kicks against 18

6 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 16. · Middlesbrough 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	17	14	1	2	+24	43
2	Liverpool	17	11	4	2	+21	37
3	Man City	17	11	3	3	+16	36
4	Arsenal	17	10	4	3	+19	34
5	Tottenham	17	9	6	2	+17	33
6	Man United	17	8	6	3	+7	30
7	Southampton	17	6	6	5	+1	24
8	West Brom	17	6	5	6	+2	23
9	Everton	17	6	5	6	+0	23
10	Watford	18	6	4	8	-8	22
11	Bournemouth	17	6	3	8	-5	21
12	Stoke	17	5	6	6	-5	21
13	West Ham	17	5	4	8	-12	19
14	Middlesbrough	17	4	6	7	-3	18
15	Leicester	17	4	5	8	-6	17
16	Burnley	17	5	2	10	-12	17
17	Crystal Palace	18	4	4	10	-4	16
18	Sunderland	17	4	2	11	-13	14
19	Swansea	17	3	3	11	-17	12
20	Hull	17	3	3	11	-22	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	9	7	2	0	+14	23
2	Chelsea	8	7	0	1	+17	21
3	Man City	9	5	3	1	+8	18
4	Liverpool	7	5	2	0	+15	17
5	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+8	17
6	Everton	9	4	4	1	+5	16
7	Bournemouth	9	5	1	3	+4	16
8	Burnley	9	5	1	3	+4	16
9	Leicester	8	4	3	1	+7	15
10	Southampton	8	4	3	1	+3	15
11	West Brom	9	4	2	3	+3	14
12	Watford	9	4	2	3	+1	14
13	West Ham	9	4	2	3	-5	14
14	Man United	8	3	4	1	+5	13
15	Stoke	9	3	3	3	-2	12
16	Middlesbrough	9	3	1	5	-1	10
17	Sunderland	9	3	1	5	-4	10
18	Swansea	8	2	2	4	-3	8
19	Hull	8	2	2	4	-6	8
20	Crystal Palace	9	2	1	6	-1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	9	7	1	1	+7	22
2	Liverpool	10	6	2	2	+6	20
3	Man City	8	6	0	2	+8	18
4	Arsenal	9	5	2	2	+11	17
5	Man United	9	5	2	2	+2	17
6	Tottenham	8	2	4	2	+3	10
7	West Brom	8	2	3	3	-1	9
8	Southampton	9	2	3	4	-2	9
9	Crystal Palace	9	2	3	4	-3	9
10	Stoke	8	2	3	3	-3	9
11	Middlesbrough	8	1	5	2	-2	8
12	Watford	9	2	2	5	-9	8
13	Everton	8	2	1	5	-5	7
14	West Ham	8	1	2	5	-7	5
15	Bournemouth	8	1	2	5	-9	5
16	Sunderland	8	1	1	6	-9	4
17	Swansea	9	1	1	7	-14	4
18	Hull	9	1	1	7	-16	4
19	Leicester	9	0	2	7	-13	2
20	Burnley	8	0	1	7	-16	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.