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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Watford

U T S U T

0–1

Full-time

Leicester

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,3

2,8

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 47%

36%

57%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

43%

61%

Both score Ø 52%

39%

64%

Average goals

2,1

2,9

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%

11 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 8

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 12. · Leicester 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	28	16	9	3	+20	57
2	Tottenham	29	15	10	4	+27	55
3	Arsenal	29	15	7	7	+16	52
4	Man City	28	15	5	8	+21	50
5	West Ham	29	13	10	6	+12	49
6	Man United	28	13	8	7	+11	47
7	Stoke	29	12	7	10	-3	43
8	Southampton	29	11	8	10	+7	41
9	Liverpool	27	11	8	8	+5	41
10	Chelsea	29	10	10	9	+4	40
11	Everton	28	9	11	8	+12	38
12	Watford	28	10	7	11	+0	37
13	West Brom	28	9	9	10	-7	36
14	Bournemouth	29	9	8	12	-10	35
15	Crystal Palace	28	9	6	13	-6	33
16	Swansea	29	8	9	12	-9	33
17	Sunderland	29	6	7	16	-19	25
18	Norwich	29	6	6	17	-23	24
19	Newcastle	28	6	6	16	-25	24
20	Aston Villa	29	3	7	19	-33	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	10	1	4	+22	31
2	Tottenham	15	8	5	2	+15	29
3	Leicester	14	8	5	1	+9	29
4	Man United	14	8	4	2	+12	28
5	Arsenal	14	8	3	3	+9	27
6	West Ham	14	7	5	2	+8	26
7	Southampton	15	7	3	5	+9	24
8	Stoke	14	7	2	5	+2	23
9	Chelsea	15	5	6	4	+5	21
10	Liverpool	13	5	5	3	+2	20
11	Swansea	15	5	5	5	-4	20
12	Watford	14	5	4	5	+2	19
13	West Brom	14	5	4	5	-2	19
14	Newcastle	14	4	5	5	+0	17
15	Everton	15	4	4	7	+3	16
16	Sunderland	14	4	4	6	+1	16
17	Norwich	14	4	4	6	-3	16
18	Bournemouth	14	4	4	6	-4	16
19	Crystal Palace	14	4	2	8	-4	14
20	Aston Villa	14	2	4	8	-12	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	14	8	4	2	+11	28
2	Tottenham	14	7	5	2	+12	26
3	Arsenal	15	7	4	4	+7	25
4	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+4	23
5	Everton	13	5	7	1	+9	22
6	Liverpool	14	6	3	5	+3	21
7	Stoke	15	5	5	5	-5	20
8	Man United	14	5	4	5	-1	19
9	Chelsea	14	5	4	5	-1	19
10	Man City	13	5	4	4	-1	19
11	Crystal Palace	14	5	4	5	-2	19
12	Bournemouth	15	5	4	6	-6	19
13	Watford	14	5	3	6	-2	18
14	Southampton	14	4	5	5	-2	17
15	West Brom	14	4	5	5	-5	17
16	Swansea	14	3	4	7	-5	13
17	Sunderland	15	2	3	10	-20	9
18	Norwich	15	2	2	11	-20	8
19	Newcastle	14	2	1	11	-25	7
20	Aston Villa	15	1	3	11	-21	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.