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Premier League
Referee: Mark Clattenburg
Man City
S S S
2–0
Full-time
Watford
U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Watford
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
100%
0%
Points per game
3,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 17%
0%
33%
Average goals
2,7
1,3
Scored
2,7
0,7
Conceded
0,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+2,7
+0,0
This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
100%
0%
Points per game
3,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 17%
0%
33%
Average goals
2,7
1,3
Scored
2,7
0,7
Conceded
0,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+2,7
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

58% Possession 42%
18 Shots 7
5 Shots on target 0
5 Blocked shots 5
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
9 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Man City 1. · Watford 12. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 3 3 0 0 +8 9
2 Leicester 3 2 1 0 +3 7
3 Man United 3 2 1 0 +2 7
4 Liverpool 3 2 1 0 +2 7
5 Arsenal 4 2 1 1 +0 7
6 Crystal Palace 3 2 0 1 +2 6
7 Swansea 3 1 2 0 +2 5
8 Everton 3 1 1 1 +1 4
9 Norwich 3 1 1 1 +0 4
10 Chelsea 3 1 1 1 -2 4
11 West Ham 3 1 0 2 +0 3
12 Watford 3 0 3 0 +0 3
13 Bournemouth 3 1 0 2 -1 3
14 Aston Villa 3 1 0 2 -1 3
15 Tottenham 3 0 2 1 -1 2
16 Stoke 3 0 2 1 -1 2
17 Newcastle 4 0 2 2 -3 2
18 Southampton 3 0 2 1 -3 2
19 Sunderland 3 0 1 2 -4 1
20 West Brom 3 0 1 2 -4 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Man City Watford
Vincent Kompany 🟨
40′
43′
🟨 Allan Nyom
Half-time 0–0
S. Nasri 🔁
↦ Jesús Navas
46′
1–0 R. Sterling ⚽
B. Sagna
47′
2–0 Fernandinho ⚽
David Silva
56′
63′
🟨 Sebastian Prödl
63′
🔁 I. Anya
↦ A. Abdi
72′
🔁 M. Layún
↦ O. Ighalo
F. Delph 🔁
↦ David Silva
75′
76′
🔁 B. Watson
↦ E. Capoue
K. Iheanacho 🔁
↦ R. Sterling
89′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Man City

1 J. Hart G
3 B. Sagna D
4 V. Kompany D
11 A. Kolarov D
20 E. Mangala D
21 David Silva M
42 Y. Touré M
15 Jesús Navas M
25 Fernandinho M
7 R. Sterling M
10 S. Agüero F
Bench (7)
8 S. Nasri
18 F. Delph
72 K. Iheanacho
13 W. Caballero
26 M. Demichelis
27 P. Roberts
50 Pablo Maffeo

Watford

1 Gomes G
5 S. Prödl D
25 J. Holebas D
2 A. Nyom D
15 C. Cathcart D
8 V. Behrami M
7 Jurado M
22 A. Abdi M
29 E. Capoue M
24 O. Ighalo M
9 T. Deeney M
Bench (7)
21 I. Anya
19 M. Layún
23 B. Watson
32 A. Diamanti
10 M. Vydra
31 T. Hoban
34 G. Arlauskis

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Mark Clattenburg · 53 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
9,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.