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Premier League

Referee: Andre Marriner

Newcastle

U T U

0–1

Full-time

Arsenal

T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

1,7

Scored

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

1,7

Scored

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

26% Possession 74%

1 Shots 22

0 Shots on target 9

0 Blocked shots 7

9 Goalkeeper saves 0

0 Corners 9

2 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

6 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 17. · Arsenal 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Leicester	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Man United	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Crystal Palace	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Swansea	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Everton	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Norwich	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Arsenal	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	-2	4
11	West Ham	3	1	0	2	+0	3
12	Watford	3	0	3	0	+0	3
13	Bournemouth	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Aston Villa	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Tottenham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Stoke	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-3	2
19	Sunderland	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	West Brom	3	0	1	2	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+2	4
2	Man United	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Watford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
8	Chelsea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Everton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
12	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Arsenal	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
20	West Brom	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Everton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Man United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Swansea	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Stoke	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Southampton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Newcastle	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.