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Premier League
Referee: Craig Pawson
Chelsea
U T S
1–2
Full-time
Crystal Palace
S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Crystal Palace
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
4,0
3,3
Scored
1,7
2,0
Conceded
2,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,7
This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
4,0
3,3
Scored
1,7
2,0
Conceded
2,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

63% Possession 37%
26 Shots 13
9 Shots on target 5
8 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 7
7 Corners 7
0 Offside 2
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Chelsea 10. · Crystal Palace 6. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 3 3 0 0 +8 9
2 Leicester 3 2 1 0 +3 7
3 Man United 3 2 1 0 +2 7
4 Liverpool 3 2 1 0 +2 7
5 Arsenal 4 2 1 1 +0 7
6 Crystal Palace 3 2 0 1 +2 6
7 Swansea 3 1 2 0 +2 5
8 Everton 3 1 1 1 +1 4
9 Norwich 3 1 1 1 +0 4
10 Chelsea 3 1 1 1 -2 4
11 West Ham 3 1 0 2 +0 3
12 Watford 3 0 3 0 +0 3
13 Bournemouth 3 1 0 2 -1 3
14 Aston Villa 3 1 0 2 -1 3
15 Tottenham 3 0 2 1 -1 2
16 Stoke 3 0 2 1 -1 2
17 Newcastle 4 0 2 2 -3 2
18 Southampton 3 0 2 1 -3 2
19 Sunderland 3 0 1 2 -4 1
20 West Brom 3 0 1 2 -4 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Chelsea Crystal Palace
Half-time 0–0
55′
🔁 Y. Bolasie
↦ W. Zaha
65′
⚽ B. Sako 0–1
R. Falcao 🔁
↦ Willian
66′
Kenedy 🔁
↦ Azpilicueta
68′
Gary Cahill 🟨
71′
73′
🟨 Yohan Cabaye
R. Loftus-Cheek 🔁
↦ N. Matić
73′
1–1 R. Falcao ⚽
Pedro
79′
81′
⚽ J. Ward 1–2
B. Sako
82′
🔁 J. Ledley
↦ Y. Cabaye
84′
🔁 Chung-Yong Lee
↦ B. Sako
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Chelsea

13 T. Courtois G
24 G. Cahill D
2 B. Ivanović D
28 Azpilicueta D
5 K. Zouma D
4 Fàbregas M
22 Willian M
21 N. Matić M
10 E. Hazard M
17 Pedro M
19 Diego Costa F
Bench (7)
9 R. Falcao
16 Kenedy
36 R. Loftus-Cheek
1 A. Begović
6 A. Baba
12 J. Obi Mikel
18 L. Rémy

Crystal Palace

12 A. McCarthy G
27 D. Delaney D
6 S. Dann D
2 J. Ward D
23 P. Souaré D
7 Y. Cabaye M
26 B. Sako M
42 J. Puncheon M
18 J. McArthur M
11 W. Zaha M
21 C. Wickham F
Bench (7)
10 Y. Bolasie
28 J. Ledley
14 Chung-Yong Lee
3 A. Mariappa
13 W. Hennessey
16 D. Gayle
22 J. Mutch

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Craig Pawson · 139 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.