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Conference League
Referee: I Barbara
HNK Rijeka
S T U S S
1–0
Full-time
Ilves
T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

HNK Rijeka Ilves
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
0,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 2/4 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 13%
0%
25%
Both score Ø 13%
0%
25%
Average goals
1,0
1,5
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
0,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

66% Possession 34%
14 Shots on target 1
7 Blocked shots 1
9 Corners 1
2 Offside 0
9 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

HNK Rijeka Ilves
Branko Pavić 🟨
11′
1–0 N. Jankovic ⚽
T. Dantas
16′
27′
🟨 Jesse Kilo
Half-time 1–0
S. Vignato 🔁
↦ T. Fruk
46′
Alfonso Barco 🟨
50′
59′
🔁 R. Riski
↦ T. Hytonen
59′
🔁 O. Multala
↦ L. Ala-Myllymaki
J. Puljic 🔁
↦ D. Adu Adjei
71′
J. Lasickas 🔁
↦ T. Dantas
71′
72′
🔁 T. Miettunen
↦ S. Vaisanen
72′
🔁 Y. Sacko
↦ A. Popovitch
75′
🟨 Jardell Kanga
83′
🔁 E. Tamminen
↦ J. Kanga
G. Rukavina 🔁
↦ M. Devetak
84′
I. Cubelic 🔁
↦ A. Gojak
90′
92′
🟨 Abdoul Goudouss Bamba
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

HNK Rijeka

4-2-3-1
99 A. Todorovic G
22 A. Orec D
45 A. Majstorovic D
5 A. Barco M
34 M. Devetak D
26 T. Dantas M
6 B. Pavic M
14 A. Gojak M
10 T. Fruk M
4 N. Jankovic M
18 D. Adu Adjei F
Bench (12)
1 V. Kovac
13 I. Vekic
3 M. Zivkovic
8 I. Cubelic
11 G. Rukavina
15 G. Grulovic
19 S. Vignato
21 J. Puljic
23 J. Lasickas
37 C. Saho
51 A. Husic
91 N. Bodetic

Coach: Matjaz Kek

Ilves

4-3-3
12 F. Krkalic G
19 G. Bamba D
24 V. Kumpu D
5 S. Vaisanen D
3 M. Rale D
28 J. Kilo M
14 A. Popovitch M
15 L. Ala-Myllymaki M
30 J. Kanga M
9 T. Hytonen F
13 K. Wallius M
Bench (10)
1 O. Virtanen
31 R. Leislahti
10 R. Riski
16 T. Miettunen
17 S. Baranov
22 O. Multala
25 S. Suvanne
33 Y. Sacko
36 R. Aho
45 E. Tamminen

Coach: Joni Lehtonen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Barbara · 10 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
16,5 / match
Below average

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.