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Conference League
Referee: Ivar Orri Kristjansson
AZ Alkmaar
S U S S T
5–0
Full-time
Ilves
U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Ilves
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
4,5
4,3
Scored
2,8
1,5
Conceded
1,7
2,8
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
7,0
7,0
Scored
3,0
4,0
Conceded
4,0
3,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

57% Possession 43%
27 Shots 7
16 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 5
2 Goalkeeper saves 9
9 Corners 1
4 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 9
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

24. Jul -25 Ilves – AZ Alkmaar 4–3

Match report

AZ Alkmaar Ilves
Troy Parrott 🟨
11′
Sven Mijnans 🟨
17′
17′
🟨 Sauli Väisänen
1–0 T. Parrott ⚽
E. Poku
22′
2–0 T. Parrott ⚽
M. de Wit
26′
3–0 E. Poku ⚽
M. de Wit
36′
4–0 D. Kasius ⚽
S. Mijnans
42′
Ro-Zangelo Daal 🟨
45′
Half-time 4–0
V. Ulundu 🔁
↦ A. Raymond
57′
57′
🔁 P. Koopmeiners
↦ J. Clasie
57′
🔁 I. Jensen
↦ R. Daal
57′
🔁 M. Meerdink
↦ T. Parrott
61′
🟨 Matias Rale
67′
🔁 E. Dijkstra
↦ D. Kasius
M. Stjopin 🔁
↦ J. Kanga
69′
O. Tiitinen 🔁
↦ J. Veteli
69′
5–0 M. de Wit ⚽
M. Meerdink
74′
75′
🔁 Z. Buurmeester
↦ K. Smit
T. Miettunen 🔁
↦ S. Vaisanen
79′
V. Kumpu 🔁
↦ A. Maenpaa
79′
Full-time 5–0

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar

4-2-3-1
1 O. Virtanen
22 A. Maenpaa
5 S. Vaisanen
3 M. Rale
19 O. Jukkola
14 A. Popovitch
7 J. Veteli
23 A. Raymond
30 J. Kanga
17 M. Soderback
10 R. Riski
Bench (10)
12 F. Krkalic
32 L. Vayrynen
8 M. Stjopin
9 T. Hytonen
13 K. Wallius
16 T. Miettunen
18 V. Ulundu
20 O. Tiitinen
24 V. Kumpu
28 J. Kilo

Coach: Maarten Martens

Ilves

3-4-2-1
41 J. Zoet
30 D. Kasius
3 W. Goes
5 Penetra
34 M. de Wit
8 J. Clasie
10 S. Mijnans
26 K. Smit
7 E. Poku
9 T. Parrott
27 R. Daal
Bench (10)
12 H. Verhulst
31 D. Deen
6 P. Koopmeiners
11 I. Sadiq
15 M. Chavez Garcia
17 I. Jensen
21 D. Kwakman
22 E. Dijkstra
28 Z. Buurmeester
35 M. Meerdink

Coach: Joonas Rantanen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.