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Conference League
Referee: Oleksiy Derevinskyi
Celje
T S T S S
3–1
Full-time
AEK
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celje AEK
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,7
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
50%
0%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
3,2
1,5
Scored
2,0
1,3
Conceded
1,2
0,2
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 4/6 matches
Win Ø 63%
75%
50%
Points per game
2,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 38%
25%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,2
Scored
2,5
1,5
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,94 xG 1,10
60% Possession 40%
21 Shots 9
9 Shots on target 5
9 Blocked shots 0
4 Goalkeeper saves 7
9 Corners 4
0 Offside 3
15 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Celje AEK
7′
⚽ D. Kutesa 0–1
N. Eliasson
18′
🟨 Thomas Strakosha
1–1 F. Kovacevic ⚽
34′
Half-time 1–1
52′
🟨 Răzvan Marin
2–1 F. Kovacevic ⚽
N. Iosifov
55′
57′
🔁 A. Koita
↦ R. Marin
57′
🔁 P. Mantalos
↦ N. Eliasson
63′
🟨 Lazaros Rota
63′
🔁 F. Pierrot
↦ M. Grujic
Darko Hrka 🟨
70′
74′
🟨 Petros Mantalos
P. Daniel 🔁
↦ D. Hrka
74′
Vitaliy Lisakovich 🟨
77′
M. Avdyli 🔁
↦ M. Kvesic
79′
A. Kotnik 🔁
↦ V. Lisakovich
79′
79′
🔁 M. Gacinovic
↦ S. Pilios
79′
🔁 J. Penrice
↦ D. Kutesa
3–1 F. Kovacevic ⚽
M. Avdyli
80′
Franko Kovačević 🟨
81′
R. Pozeg 🔁
↦ D. Sturm
84′
M. Poplatnik 🔁
↦ F. Kovacevic
84′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Celje

3-4-2-1
1 Z. Leban G
2 Juanjo Nieto D
44 L. Bejger D
6 A. Tutyskinas D
20 N. Iosifov M
4 D. Hrka M
23 Z. Karnicnik M
10 D. Sturm M
71 V. Lisakovich F
8 M. Kvesic F
9 F. Kovacevic F
Bench (10)
12 L. Kolar
3 D. Vuklisevic
5 G. Vodeb
7 F. Jevsenak
11 M. Avdyli
13 P. Daniel
16 I. Vidovic
17 A. Kotnik
94 R. Pozeg
99 M. Poplatnik

Coach: Albert Riera Ortega

AEK

4-4-1-1
1 T. Strakosha G
12 L. Rota D
2 H. Moukoudi D
44 F. Relvas D
3 S. Pilios D
19 N. Eliasson M
13 O. Pineda M
4 M. Grujic M
7 D. Kutesa M
18 R. Marin F
9 L. Jovic F
Bench (10)
81 A. Angelopoulos
91 A. Brignoli
8 M. Gacinovic
11 A. Koita
14 F. Pierrot
20 P. Mantalos
21 D. Vida
29 J. Penrice
34 C. Kosidis
55 K. Chrysopoulos

Coach: Marko Nikolić

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.