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Europa League
Referee: Istvan Kovacs
Roma
S U T U T
3–4
Full-time
Bologna
S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Bologna
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
83%
17%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,5
1,5
Scored
1,8
1,0
Conceded
1,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 9/11 matches
Win Ø 56%
56%
55%
Points per game
1,9
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
44%
45%
Both score Ø 56%
56%
55%
Average goals
2,3
2,3
Scored
1,6
1,5
Conceded
0,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,19 xG 1,75
61% Possession 39%
24 Shots 14
7 Shots on target 9
7 Blocked shots 2
5 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 4
3 Offside 1
21 Free kicks against 27
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

12. Mar -26 Bologna – Roma 1–1 23. Aug -25 Roma – Bologna 1–0 12. Jan -25 Bologna – Roma 2–2 10. Nov -24 Roma – Bologna 2–3 22. Apr -24 Roma – Bologna 1–3

Match report

Roma Bologna
L. Pellegrini 🔁
↦ M. Kone
20′
22′
⚽ J. Rowe 0–1
S. Castro
26′
🟨 Martin Vitík
1–1 E. Ndicka ⚽
L. Pellegrini
32′
45′
⚽ F. Bernardeschi 1–2
Half-time 1–2
Zeki Çelik 🟨
55′
R. Vaz 🔁
↦ S. El Shaarawy
57′
58′
⚽ S. Castro 1–3
J. Rowe
2–3 D. Malen ⚽
69′
71′
🟨 Nadir Zortea
73′
🔁 T. Dallinga
↦ S. Castro
73′
🔁 N. Cambiaghi
↦ J. Rowe
73′
🔁 N. Casale
↦ M. Vitik
76′
🟨 Jhon Lucumí
79′
🔁 R. Orsolini
↦ F. Bernardeschi
3–3 L. Pellegrini ⚽
80′
91′
🔁 N. Moro
↦ T. Pobega
N. El Aynaoui 🔁
↦ N. Pisilli
104′
108′
🟨 Remo Freuler
B. Zaragoza 🔁
↦ Z. Celik
109′
111′
⚽ N. Cambiaghi 3–4
T. Dallinga
114′
🔁 T. Heggem
↦ R. Freuler
116′
🟨 Lewis Ferguson
Gianluca Mancini 🟨
123′
Full-time 3–4

Line-ups

Roma

3-4-2-1
99 M. Svilar G
23 G. Mancini D
5 E. Ndicka D
22 M. Hermoso D
19 Z. Celik M
4 B. Cristante M
17 M. Kone M
43 Wesley Franca M
61 N. Pisilli F
92 S. El Shaarawy F
14 D. Malen F
Bench (10)
70 G. De Marzi
95 P. Gollini
12 K. Tsimikas
97 B. Zaragoza
24 J. Ziolkowski
78 R. Vaz
7 L. Pellegrini
2 D. Rensch
87 D. Ghilardi
8 N. El Aynaoui

Coach: Piero Gasperini Gian

Bologna

4-3-3
13 F. Ravaglia G
20 N. Zortea D
41 M. Vitik D
26 J. Lucumi D
17 Joao Mario D
19 L. Ferguson M
8 R. Freuler M
4 T. Pobega M
10 F. Bernardeschi F
9 S. Castro F
11 J. Rowe F
Bench (12)
25 M. Pessina
82 M. Franceschelli
6 N. Moro
7 R. Orsolini
14 T. Heggem
24 T. Dallinga
28 N. Cambiaghi
30 B. Dominguez
22 C. Lykogiannis
21 J. Odgaard
16 N. Casale
23 S. Sohm

Coach: Vincenzo Italiano

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.