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Serie A

Referee: A Colombo

Napoli

T U S S T

0–1

Full-time

Lazio

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 68%

71%

64%

Points per game

2,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

43%

86%

Both score Ø 46%

21%

71%

Average goals

2,1

3,3

Scored

1,5

2,1

Conceded

0,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,56 xG 0,29

57% Possession 43%

12 Shots 7

1 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 2. · Lazio 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	15	11	1	3	+21	+15.2	34
2	Napoli	14	10	2	2	+12	+9.1	32
3	Inter	14	9	4	1	+19	+12.7	31
4	Fiorentina	14	9	4	1	+18	+7.6	31
5	Lazio	14	9	1	4	+12	+13.6	28
6	Juventus	15	6	9	0	+14	+9.4	27
7	Milan	14	6	4	4	+8	+9.2	22
8	Bologna	14	5	7	2	+2	+1.3	22
9	Empoli	15	4	7	4	-1	-9.3	19
10	Udinese	14	5	2	7	-5	-7.0	17
11	Roma	15	4	4	7	-3	-2.5	16
12	Torino	15	4	4	7	-4	-6.4	16
13	Parma	15	3	6	6	-4	-6.0	15
14	Genoa	15	3	6	6	-11	-8.5	15
15	Cagliari	15	3	5	7	-10	-2.9	14
16	Lecce	15	3	4	8	-18	-8.8	13
17	Como	15	2	6	7	-12	-1.0	12
18	Verona	15	4	0	11	-19	-12.0	12
19	Monza	14	1	7	6	-5	-6.5	10
20	Venezia	15	2	3	10	-14	-7.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lazio	7	6	1	0	+11	+11.0	19
2	Atalanta	7	6	0	1	+13	+8.2	18
3	Napoli	7	6	0	1	+7	+7.6	18
4	Inter	8	5	2	1	+9	+6.4	17
5	Fiorentina	7	5	2	0	+9	+6.7	17
6	Milan	7	4	2	1	+9	+6.3	14
7	Juventus	8	3	5	0	+6	+6.4	14
8	Roma	8	4	0	4	+3	+0.5	12
9	Udinese	7	4	0	3	+0	-3.8	12
10	Bologna	6	2	4	0	+4	+4.3	10
11	Cagliari	8	2	3	3	-6	-0.2	9
12	Lecce	7	2	3	2	-8	-0.3	9
13	Verona	8	3	0	5	-10	-4.4	9
14	Torino	7	2	2	3	-1	-4.5	8
15	Parma	8	2	2	4	-2	-2.7	8
16	Venezia	7	2	1	4	-2	+3.2	7
17	Empoli	7	1	4	2	-3	-2.6	7
18	Como	6	1	3	2	-5	-0.2	6
19	Genoa	9	0	6	3	-6	-4.5	6
20	Monza	7	0	3	4	-4	-3.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	8	5	1	2	+8	+7.0	16
2	Inter	6	4	2	0	+10	+6.3	14
3	Fiorentina	7	4	2	1	+9	+0.9	14
4	Napoli	7	4	2	1	+5	+1.4	14
5	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+8	+3.0	13
6	Empoli	8	3	3	2	+2	-6.7	12
7	Bologna	8	3	3	2	-2	-3.1	12
8	Lazio	7	3	0	4	+1	+2.7	9
9	Genoa	6	3	0	3	-5	-4.0	9
10	Milan	7	2	2	3	-1	+3.0	8
11	Torino	8	2	2	4	-3	-1.9	8
12	Monza	7	1	4	2	-1	-3.4	7
13	Parma	7	1	4	2	-2	-3.2	7
14	Como	9	1	3	5	-7	-0.8	6
15	Cagliari	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.7	5
16	Udinese	7	1	2	4	-5	-3.2	5
17	Roma	7	0	4	3	-6	-3.0	4
18	Lecce	8	1	1	6	-10	-8.5	4
19	Verona	7	1	0	6	-9	-7.7	3
20	Venezia	8	0	2	6	-12	-10.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.