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Europa League
Referee: B Berke
Ath Bilbao
S S S U U
2–0
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao AZ Alkmaar
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,5
Scored
1,7
1,7
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
1,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
2,0
5,0
Scored
1,0
3,0
Conceded
1,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,42 xG 0,37
55% Possession 45%
17 Shots 5
7 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
4 Corners 1
2 Offside 6
7 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Ath Bilbao AZ Alkmaar
42′
🟨 Seiya Maikuma
Half-time 0–0
De Marcos 🔁
↦ Andoni Gorosabel
56′
63′
🔁 M. Meerdink
↦ T. Parrott
64′
🔁 K. Belić
↦ J. Clasie
1–0 I. Williams ⚽
Nico Williams
72′
Álex Berenguer 🔁
↦ Gorka Guruzeta
74′
Ander Herrera 🔁
↦ Mikel Jauregizar
74′
76′
🔁 D. Kasius
↦ S. Maikuma
76′
🔁 M. Lahdo
↦ P. Koopmeiners
78′
🟨 Ruben van Bommel
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta 🟨
82′
Unai Gómez 🔁
↦ Ruíz de Galarreta
84′
84′
🔁 E. Poku
↦ Alexandre Penetra
2–0 Oihan Sancet ⚽
85′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
13 Julen Agirrezabala G
2 Andoni Gorosabel D
3 Dani Vivian D
4 Aitor Paredes D
17 Yuri D
23 Mikel Jauregizar M
16 Ruíz de Galarreta M
9 I. Williams M
8 Oihan Sancet M
10 Nico Williams M
12 Gorka Guruzeta F
Bench (12)
18 De Marcos
7 Álex Berenguer
21 Ander Herrera
20 Unai Gómez
26 Á. Padilla
19 Javi Martón
14 Unai Núñez
22 Nico Serrano
11 Álvaro Djaló
32 Adama Boiro
15 Lekue
28 Peio Canales

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

AZ Alkmaar

4-2-3-1
1 R. Owusu-Oduro G
16 S. Maikuma D
5 Alexandre Penetra D
4 B. Martins Indi D
18 D. Møller Wolfe D
6 P. Koopmeiners M
8 J. Clasie M
10 S. Mijnans M
28 Z. Buurmeester M
7 R. van Bommel M
9 T. Parrott F
Bench (11)
35 M. Meerdink
14 K. Belić
30 D. Kasius
23 M. Lahdo
21 E. Poku
12 H. Verhulst
22 M. Dekker
41 J. Zoet
17 J. Addai
34 M. de Wit
25 L. Zeefuik

Coach: M. Martens

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

B Berke · 11 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,50 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.