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Europa League
Referee: K Tohver
Elfsborg
S U U T S
1–0
Full-time
Roma
U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Elfsborg Roma
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,3
2,2
Scored
1,8
1,3
Conceded
1,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 9/1 matches
Win Ø 34%
67%
0%
Points per game
2,1
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 17%
33%
0%
Both score Ø 67%
33%
100%
Average goals
2,7
2,0
Scored
1,9
1,0
Conceded
0,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,1
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,29 xG 1,52
25% Possession 75%
6 Shots 23
4 Shots on target 5
0 Blocked shots 7
5 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 5
2 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 5
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Elfsborg Roma
Ahmed Qasem 🟨
35′
Ahmed Qasem ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
42′
1–0 M. Baidoo ⚽
44′
Half-time 1–0
Niklas Hult 🟨
52′
Arbër Zeneli 🟨
60′
J. Abdullai 🔁
↦ A. Zeneli
62′
65′
🔁 A. Dovbyk
↦ E. Shomurodov
65′
🔁 S. El Shaarawy
↦ Saud Abdulhamid
65′
🔁 P. Dybala
↦ M. Soulé
72′
🔁 L. Pellegrini
↦ T. Baldanzi
85′
🔁 B. Cristante
↦ N. Pisilli
P. Frick 🔁
↦ M. Baidoo
86′
95′
🟨 Paulo Dybala
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Elfsborg

5-3-2
31 I. Pettersson G
15 S. Hedlund D
29 I. Buhari D
4 G. Henriksson D
2 T. Yegbe D
23 N. Hult D
16 T. Ouma M
27 B. Zeneli M
18 A. Qasem M
9 A. Zeneli F
10 M. Baidoo F
Bench (12)
14 J. Abdullai
17 P. Frick
30 M. Bundgaard
1 M. Uppenberg
20 G. Rapp
6 A. Baldursson
13 J. Larsson
28 L. Östman
19 R. Kaib
11 E. Guðmundsson
12 E. Holten
7 J. Thomasen

Coach: O. Hiljemark

Roma

3-4-2-1
99 M. Svilar G
19 Z. Çelik D
5 E. Ndicka D
22 Hermoso D
12 Saud Abdulhamid M
61 N. Pisilli M
16 L. Paredes M
3 Angeliño M
18 M. Soulé F
35 T. Baldanzi F
14 E. Shomurodov F
Bench (11)
11 A. Dovbyk
92 S. El Shaarawy
21 P. Dybala
7 L. Pellegrini
4 B. Cristante
15 M. Hummels
98 M. Ryan
17 M. Koné
23 G. Mancini
89 R. Bellucci
66 Buba Sangaré

Coach: I. Jurić

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

K Tohver · 17 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
19,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.