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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Capela

Arouca

S S U U T

2–0

Full-time

Nacional

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,7

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

49% Possession 51%

10 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 0

2 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 11

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Moreirense	2	1	1	0	+3	4
4	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Feirense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Chaves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Maritimo	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Chaves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Belenenses	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
9	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	0
11	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
12	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-2	0
13	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Feirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Boavista	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-2	0
13	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.