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Super League

Referee: D Blanco

Lugano

U S S S S

4–1

Full-time

Winterthur

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Winterthur

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,8

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

0,8

2,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 20/19 matches

Win Ø 33%

55%

11%

Points per game

1,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

55%

84%

Both score Ø 59%

55%

63%

Average goals

2,9

3,9

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,3

2,7

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,18 xG 1,58

69% Possession 31%

16 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lugano 3. · Winterthur 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	20	14	1	5	+18	+1.2	43
2	St. Gallen	19	12	1	6	+16	+4.2	37
3	Lugano	20	11	3	6	+8	-0.5	36
4	Basel	20	9	6	5	+8	+12.3	33
5	Sion	20	8	7	5	+6	+3.4	31
6	Young Boys	20	8	5	7	-2	-1.0	29
7	Lausanne	20	7	6	7	+3	+6.2	27
8	Zurich	20	7	4	9	-7	+2.2	25
9	Luzern	20	5	6	9	-3	-3.0	21
10	Servette	20	5	6	9	-7	+2.1	21
11	Grasshoppers	20	4	5	11	-11	-12.4	17
12	Winterthur	19	2	4	13	-29	-14.8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lugano	10	6	2	2	+8	+1.6	20
2	Thun	10	6	1	3	+7	-1.1	19
3	St. Gallen	10	6	0	4	+9	+6.6	18
4	Young Boys	10	5	2	3	+6	+5.7	17
5	Sion	10	5	2	3	+6	+0.3	17
6	Basel	10	4	4	2	+7	+14.0	16
7	Lausanne	10	4	2	4	+3	+7.5	14
8	Zurich	10	4	1	5	-3	+3.9	13
9	Servette	10	2	4	4	-3	+0.8	10
10	Grasshoppers	10	2	3	5	-1	-4.0	9
11	Luzern	10	1	4	5	-2	+2.6	7
12	Winterthur	9	1	2	6	-8	-3.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	10	8	0	2	+11	+2.3	24
2	St. Gallen	9	6	1	2	+7	-2.3	19
3	Basel	10	5	2	3	+1	-1.7	17
4	Lugano	10	5	1	4	+0	-2.1	16
5	Sion	10	3	5	2	+0	+3.1	14
6	Luzern	10	4	2	4	-1	-5.6	14
7	Lausanne	10	3	4	3	+0	-1.4	13
8	Zurich	10	3	3	4	-4	-1.6	12
9	Young Boys	10	3	3	4	-8	-6.7	12
10	Servette	10	3	2	5	-4	+1.4	11
11	Grasshoppers	10	2	2	6	-10	-8.3	8
12	Winterthur	10	1	2	7	-21	-11.2	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.