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Champions League
Referee: A Taylor
Sp Lisbon
S S S U S
2–1
Full-time
Paris SG
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
4,2
2,7
Scored
3,5
2,0
Conceded
0,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
+2,8
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,3
4,5
Scored
2,0
3,2
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,89 xG 1,42
25% Possession 75%
10 Shots 28
4 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 11
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 10
1 Offside 4
10 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Sp Lisbon Paris SG
31′
ℹ️ Warren Zaïre-Emery
VAR: Goal cancelled
Half-time 0–0
Ricardo Mangas 🟨
59′
G. Vagiannidis 🔁
↦ R. Mangas
63′
66′
🔁 K. Kvaratskhelia
↦ S. Mayulu
71′
🔁 G. Ramos
↦ B. Barcola
1–0 L. Suarez ⚽
74′
79′
⚽ K. Kvaratskhelia 1–1
O. Dembele
80′
🔁 I. Zabarnyi
↦ F. Ruiz
D. Braganca 🔁
↦ J. Simoes
87′
Alisson Santos 🔁
↦ G. Catamo
87′
2–1 L. Suarez ⚽
Trincao
90′
Luis Javier Suárez 🟨
94′
95′
🟨 Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
G. Kochorashvili 🔁
↦ Trincao
96′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Sp Lisbon

3-4-2-1
1 R. Silva G
22 I. Fresneda D
25 G. Inacio D
2 Matheus Reis D
10 G. Catamo M
5 H. Morita M
52 J. Simoes M
91 R. Mangas M
17 Trincao F
20 M. Araujo F
97 L. Suarez F
Bench (12)
41 Diego Callai
12 J. Virginia
6 Z. Debast
13 G. Vagiannidis
14 G. Kochorashvili
23 D. Braganca
27 Alisson Santos
45 D. Moreira
58 F. Goncalves
73 E. Felicissimo
78 M. Couto
90 R. Nel

Coach: Rui Borges

Paris SG

4-3-3
30 L. Chevalier G
33 W. Zaire-Emery D
5 Marquinhos D
51 W. Pacho D
25 N. Mendes D
24 S. Mayulu M
17 Vitinha M
8 F. Ruiz M
14 D. Doue F
10 O. Dembele F
29 B. Barcola F
Bench (7)
60 M. James
89 R. Marin
4 L. Beraldo
6 I. Zabarnyi
7 K. Kvaratskhelia
9 G. Ramos
45 N. Nsoki

Coach: Enrique Luis

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

A Taylor · 215 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.