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Copa del Rey

Referee: Víctor García

Arandina

S S

1–3

Full-time

Real Madrid

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arandina Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 2/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

100%

83%

Points per game

3,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Getafe	3	3	0	0	+14	9
2	Alaves	3	3	0	0	+12	9
3	Vallecano	3	3	0	0	+10	9
4	Girona	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Betis	3	2	0	1	+11	6
6	Mallorca	2	2	0	0	+7	6
7	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Celta	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+5	6
10	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Ath Bilbao	2	2	0	0	+4	6
12	Unionistas de Salamanca	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Espanol	3	2	0	1	+3	6
14	Burgos	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	Ferrol	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+3	6
17	Elche	3	2	0	1	+2	6
18	Castellon	2	2	0	0	+2	6
19	Tenerife	2	2	0	0	+2	6
20	Arandina	2	2	0	0	+2	6
21	Sociedad	2	2	0	0	+2	6
22	Barbastro	2	2	0	0	+2	6
23	Lugo	3	2	0	1	+1	6
24	Huesca	3	2	0	1	+1	6
25	Eibar	2	1	1	0	+4	4
26	Melilla	2	1	1	0	+1	4
27	Malaga	2	1	1	0	+1	4
28	Alcorcon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
29	Granada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
30	Valladolid	2	1	0	1	+2	3
31	Levante	2	1	0	1	+2	3
32	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Buñol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
34	La Coruna	2	1	0	1	+1	3
35	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+1	3
36	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	3
38	Amorebieta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Sestao River	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Eldense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Oviedo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Antequera	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Andratx	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	Villanovense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Atzeneta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Tudelano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Terrassa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Mirandes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
50	Arenteiro	2	1	0	1	-1	3
51	Atlético Astorga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
52	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
53	Cayón	2	1	0	1	-2	3
54	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
55	Valle Egüés	2	1	0	1	-2	3
56	Boiro	2	1	0	1	-3	3
57	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-4	3
58	Atlético Lugones	2	1	0	1	-5	3
59	Deportivo Murcia	2	1	0	1	-8	3
60	Hernán Cortés	2	1	0	1	-9	3
61	Tardienta	2	1	0	1	-11	3
62	Cartagena	2	0	2	0	+0	2
63	Santander	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Barakaldo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Gimnastic	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Zamora	2	0	1	1	-1	1
71	Rubí	2	0	1	1	-1	1
72	Cadiz	2	0	1	1	-1	1
73	Linares Deportivo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
74	Orihuela	2	0	1	1	-3	1
75	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Tarazona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Manresa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Ursaria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Real Murcia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Recreativo Huelva	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Covadonga	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Manchego	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Marbella	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Gernika	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Sanluqueño	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Europa Fc	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
117	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
118	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
119	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
120	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
121	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
122	Arosa	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arandina	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Barbastro	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+1	3
5	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Malaga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Ferrol	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Lugo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Andratx	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Villanovense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Atzeneta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Tudelano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Terrassa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Atlético Astorga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
18	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	Valle Egüés	2	1	0	1	-2	3
20	Hernán Cortés	2	1	0	1	-9	3
21	Tardienta	2	1	0	1	-11	3
22	Melilla	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Alcorcon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Barakaldo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Zamora	2	0	1	1	-1	1
29	Rubí	2	0	1	1	-1	1
30	Orihuela	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Sestao River	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Manresa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Ursaria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Levante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Buñol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Linares Deportivo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Arenteiro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Covadonga	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Manchego	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Marbella	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Huesca	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Elche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	UD Logroñés	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Gernika	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Antequera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Europa Fc	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Cayón	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
73	Boiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
74	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
75	Arosa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
76	Chiclana	1	0	0	1	-5	0
77	Atlético Lugones	1	0	0	1	-6	0
78	Deportivo Murcia	1	0	0	1	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Getafe	3	3	0	0	+14	9
2	Vallecano	3	3	0	0	+10	9
3	Girona	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Betis	3	2	0	1	+11	6
5	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+11	6
6	Mallorca	2	2	0	0	+7	6
7	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Celta	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	+5	6
10	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
12	Ath Bilbao	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Burgos	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	Tenerife	2	2	0	0	+2	6
17	Sociedad	2	2	0	0	+2	6
18	Eibar	2	1	1	0	+4	4
19	Buñol	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Granada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Valladolid	2	1	0	1	+2	3
23	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Deportivo Murcia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	La Coruna	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Antequera	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Ferrol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Sestao River	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
34	Atlético Lugones	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+1	3
36	Melilla	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Cayón	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Amorebieta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Alcorcon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Chiclana	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Boiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Arenteiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Eldense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Oviedo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
46	Mirandes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
47	Cartagena	2	0	2	0	+0	2
48	Santander	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Linares Deportivo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Malaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Gimnastic	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Cadiz	2	0	1	1	-1	1
54	Tarazona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Zaragoza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Real Murcia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Recreativo Huelva	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Sanluqueño	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Arandina Real Madrid

Half-time 0–0

J. Pesca 🟨

53′

54′

⚽ Joselu 0–1

55′

⚽ Brahim Díaz 0–2

59′

🔁 F. Valverde

↦ A. Güler

59′

🔁 Rodrygo

↦ E. Camavinga

Manzano 🔁

↦ A. El Battioui

60′

Raly 🔁

↦ Fredi Sualdea

60′

70′

🔁 Mario Martín

↦ N. Paz

Jorge Rodríguez 🔁

↦ Zazu

71′

Carmelo Sánchez 🔁

↦ Sergio Santa Cruz

71′

R. Cabral 🟨

76′

Fernando Bajo 🔁

↦ Vitolo

77′

80′

🔁 Á. Rodríguez

↦ Vinícius Tobias

J. Rodriguez 🟨

83′

91′

⚽ Rodrygo 0–3

Brahim Díaz

0–4 Nacho ⚽

own goal

93′

Full-time 0–4

Line-ups

Arandina

1 Adrián Álvarez

11 Zazu

4 Jorge Pesca

19 D. Ochoa

18 Jaime Márquez

22 Hajimari Ceesay

10 Sergio Santa Cruz

6 Vitolo

9 Fredi Sualdea

12 Átomo

7 A. El Battioui

Bench (9)

20 Manzano

17 Raly

8 Jorge Rodríguez

14 Carmelo Sánchez

5 Fernando Bajo

15 P. Otu

13 Roberto Jara

24 Pablo Aguilera

25 Diego Herrera

Coach: Álex Izquierdo

Real Madrid

Kepa

6 Nacho

Fran García

34 Álvaro Carrillo

36 Vinícius Tobias

Dani Ceballos

Brahim Díaz

E. Camavinga

A. Güler

N. Paz

14 Joselu

Bench (10)

15 F. Valverde

11 Rodrygo

28 Mario Martín

29 Á. Rodríguez

13 A. Lunin

2 Dani Carvajal

5 J. Bellingham

30 Fran González

22 A. Rüdiger

10 L. Modrić

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

–

🔒

–

🔒

B ✓

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5 ✓

–

🔒

U2,5

–

🔒

O3,5 ✓

–

🔒

U3,5

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

–

🔒

BLS nei

–

🔒

Recent matches

7. Dec CDR 2 years ago

1. Nov CDR 2 years ago

Referee

Víctor García · 49 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

4,6 / match

Average

⚽ Free kicks

26,7 / match

Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

Arandina

Real Madrid

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee