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Primeira Liga

Referee: Iancu Vasilica

Moreirense

S U T U S

2–3

Full-time

Tondela

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 31%

31%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

38%

42%

Both score Ø 44%

46%

42%

Average goals

2,2

2,6

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–3

56% Possession 44%

12 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 13

5 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 8. · Tondela 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	27	21	6	0	+36	69
2	Porto	26	18	6	2	+31	60
3	Benfica	26	17	6	3	+31	57
4	Sp Braga	26	17	3	6	+20	54
5	Pacos Ferreira	27	13	5	9	+1	44
6	Santa Clara	26	10	5	11	+4	35
7	Guimaraes	26	10	5	11	-5	35
8	Moreirense	26	8	10	8	-6	34
9	Portimonense	26	8	5	13	-1	29
10	Gil Vicente	26	8	4	14	-8	28
11	Boavista	27	6	10	11	-9	28
12	Rio Ave	26	6	10	10	-9	28
13	Tondela	26	8	4	14	-17	28
14	Belenenses	26	5	12	9	-9	27
15	Famalicao	26	6	9	11	-11	27
16	Maritimo	26	7	3	16	-16	24
17	Farense	27	5	7	15	-12	22
18	Nacional	26	5	6	15	-20	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	10	3	0	+17	33
2	Benfica	13	10	2	1	+15	32
3	Porto	13	9	3	1	+15	30
4	Sp Braga	13	9	2	2	+11	29
5	Pacos Ferreira	13	9	2	2	+7	29
6	Tondela	13	7	2	4	+1	23
7	Portimonense	13	6	3	4	+8	21
8	Santa Clara	13	5	3	5	+5	18
9	Moreirense	13	3	8	2	-1	17
10	Rio Ave	13	4	4	5	-1	16
11	Guimaraes	13	5	1	7	-6	16
12	Boavista	14	4	3	7	-5	15
13	Gil Vicente	13	4	2	7	-3	14
14	Belenenses	13	3	5	5	-5	14
15	Farense	14	3	4	7	-2	13
16	Nacional	13	3	3	7	-8	12
17	Famalicao	13	2	6	5	-8	12
18	Maritimo	13	3	2	8	-12	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	11	3	0	+19	36
2	Porto	13	9	3	1	+16	30
3	Benfica	13	7	4	2	+16	25
4	Sp Braga	13	8	1	4	+9	25
5	Guimaraes	13	5	4	4	+1	19
6	Santa Clara	13	5	2	6	-1	17
7	Moreirense	13	5	2	6	-5	17
8	Famalicao	13	4	3	6	-3	15
9	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	3	7	-6	15
10	Gil Vicente	13	4	2	7	-5	14
11	Boavista	13	2	7	4	-4	13
12	Maritimo	13	4	1	8	-4	13
13	Belenenses	13	2	7	4	-4	13
14	Rio Ave	13	2	6	5	-8	12
15	Farense	13	2	3	8	-10	9
16	Nacional	13	2	3	8	-12	9
17	Portimonense	13	2	2	9	-9	8
18	Tondela	13	1	2	10	-18	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.