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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Nacional

T T T T T

1–5

Full-time

Portimonense

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Portimonense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 23%

21%

25%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

46%

Both score Ø 48%

54%

42%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 10

5 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 16. · Portimonense 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	24	20	4	0	+35	64
2	Porto	24	16	6	2	+28	54
3	Benfica	24	15	6	3	+25	51
4	Sp Braga	24	16	2	6	+19	50
5	Pacos Ferreira	24	13	5	6	+10	44
6	Guimaraes	24	10	5	9	-1	35
7	Santa Clara	24	9	5	10	+1	32
8	Moreirense	24	7	9	8	-7	30
9	Rio Ave	24	6	9	9	-7	27
10	Belenenses	24	5	11	8	-7	26
11	Gil Vicente	24	7	4	13	-9	25
12	Tondela	24	7	4	13	-16	25
13	Portimonense	24	6	5	13	-8	23
14	Famalicao	24	5	8	11	-13	23
15	Farense	24	5	7	12	-9	22
16	Nacional	24	5	6	13	-12	21
17	Boavista	24	4	9	11	-13	21
18	Maritimo	24	6	3	15	-16	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	10	2	0	+17	32
2	Benfica	12	9	2	1	+14	29
3	Pacos Ferreira	12	9	2	1	+12	29
4	Sp Braga	12	9	1	2	+11	28
5	Porto	12	8	3	1	+14	27
6	Tondela	12	7	2	3	+3	23
7	Portimonense	12	5	3	4	+5	18
8	Rio Ave	12	4	4	4	+1	16
9	Moreirense	12	3	7	2	-1	16
10	Guimaraes	12	5	1	6	-5	16
11	Santa Clara	12	4	3	5	+1	15
12	Gil Vicente	12	4	2	6	-2	14
13	Belenenses	12	3	5	4	-3	14
14	Farense	12	3	4	5	+0	13
15	Nacional	12	3	3	6	-4	12
16	Boavista	12	3	2	7	-7	11
17	Famalicao	12	1	6	5	-10	9
18	Maritimo	12	2	2	8	-13	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	10	2	0	+18	32
2	Porto	12	8	3	1	+14	27
3	Benfica	12	6	4	2	+11	22
4	Sp Braga	12	7	1	4	+8	22
5	Guimaraes	12	5	4	3	+4	19
6	Santa Clara	12	5	2	5	+0	17
7	Pacos Ferreira	12	4	3	5	-2	15
8	Famalicao	12	4	2	6	-3	14
9	Moreirense	12	4	2	6	-6	14
10	Maritimo	12	4	1	7	-3	13
11	Belenenses	12	2	6	4	-4	12
12	Gil Vicente	12	3	2	7	-7	11
13	Rio Ave	12	2	5	5	-8	11
14	Boavista	12	1	7	4	-6	10
15	Nacional	12	2	3	7	-8	9
16	Farense	12	2	3	7	-9	9
17	Portimonense	12	1	2	9	-13	5
18	Tondela	12	0	2	10	-19	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.