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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Porto

S S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Guimaraes

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

100%

17%

Points per game

3,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

0,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 56%

70%

41%

Points per game

2,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

56%

52%

Both score Ø 47%

52%

41%

Average goals

3,0

2,4

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

67% Possession 33%

15 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 2. · Guimaraes 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	28	21	7	0	+36	70
2	Porto	27	19	6	2	+32	63
3	Benfica	28	18	6	4	+34	60
4	Sp Braga	28	18	4	6	+21	58
5	Pacos Ferreira	28	13	5	10	-1	44
6	Guimaraes	27	11	5	11	-4	38
7	Santa Clara	28	10	6	12	+3	36
8	Moreirense	28	8	11	9	-7	35
9	Tondela	28	10	4	14	-15	34
10	Portimonense	28	9	5	14	-4	32
11	Belenenses	28	6	13	9	-7	31
12	Gil Vicente	28	9	4	15	-10	31
13	Famalicao	28	7	9	12	-9	30
14	Rio Ave	28	6	11	11	-10	29
15	Boavista	28	6	10	12	-10	28
16	Maritimo	28	8	3	17	-17	27
17	Farense	28	6	7	15	-10	25
18	Nacional	28	5	6	17	-22	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	10	4	0	+17	34
2	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+14	32
3	Sp Braga	14	10	2	2	+12	32
4	Porto	13	9	3	1	+15	30
5	Pacos Ferreira	14	9	2	3	+5	29
6	Tondela	14	8	2	4	+2	26
7	Portimonense	14	6	3	5	+4	21
8	Santa Clara	14	5	4	5	+5	19
9	Guimaraes	14	6	1	7	-5	19
10	Rio Ave	14	4	5	5	-1	17
11	Moreirense	14	3	8	3	-2	17
12	Belenenses	14	4	5	5	-3	17
13	Boavista	14	4	3	7	-5	15
14	Gil Vicente	14	4	2	8	-6	14
15	Maritimo	14	4	2	8	-11	14
16	Farense	14	3	4	7	-2	13
17	Nacional	14	3	3	8	-9	12
18	Famalicao	14	2	6	6	-9	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	11	3	0	+19	36
2	Porto	14	10	3	1	+17	33
3	Benfica	14	8	4	2	+20	28
4	Sp Braga	14	8	2	4	+9	26
5	Guimaraes	13	5	4	4	+1	19
6	Famalicao	14	5	3	6	+0	18
7	Moreirense	14	5	3	6	-5	18
8	Santa Clara	14	5	2	7	-2	17
9	Gil Vicente	14	5	2	7	-4	17
10	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	3	7	-6	15
11	Belenenses	14	2	8	4	-4	14
12	Boavista	14	2	7	5	-5	13
13	Maritimo	14	4	1	9	-6	13
14	Farense	14	3	3	8	-8	12
15	Rio Ave	14	2	6	6	-9	12
16	Portimonense	14	3	2	9	-8	11
17	Nacional	14	2	3	9	-13	9
18	Tondela	14	2	2	10	-17	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.