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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Moreirense

S U S U T

1–2

Full-time

Tondela

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 26%

29%

23%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

34%

37%

Both score Ø 52%

63%

40%

Average goals

2,4

2,1

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

67% Possession 33%

10 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 9. · Tondela 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	36	28	4	4	+60	88
2	Benfica	36	25	6	5	+46	81
3	Sp Lisbon	36	19	7	10	+17	64
4	Sp Braga	36	19	6	11	+22	63
5	Rio Ave	36	17	10	9	+14	61
6	Famalicao	36	16	12	8	+6	60
7	Guimaraes	36	14	12	10	+17	54
8	Gil Vicente	36	12	11	13	-3	47
9	Moreirense	35	10	15	10	-1	45
10	Santa Clara	36	11	12	13	-5	45
11	Boavista	36	11	9	16	-10	42
12	Pacos Ferreira	36	12	6	18	-16	42
13	Maritimo	36	9	14	13	-8	41
14	Belenenses	35	9	8	18	-28	35
15	Setubal	34	7	13	14	-16	34
16	Tondela	35	8	10	17	-18	34
17	Portimonense	35	6	14	15	-17	32
18	Vitoria Setubal	33	6	13	14	-18	31
19	Aves	35	6	2	27	-42	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	18	16	1	1	+41	49
2	Benfica	18	13	2	3	+26	41
3	Sp Lisbon	18	12	2	4	+12	38
4	Sp Braga	18	11	4	3	+14	37
5	Guimaraes	18	9	4	5	+14	31
6	Famalicao	18	8	6	4	+5	30
7	Gil Vicente	18	7	8	3	+5	29
8	Rio Ave	18	7	6	5	+5	27
9	Moreirense	17	6	7	4	+4	25
10	Maritimo	18	5	9	4	+3	24
11	Santa Clara	18	6	5	7	-3	23
12	Boavista	18	6	4	8	-1	22
13	Portimonense	17	4	8	5	-2	20
14	Pacos Ferreira	18	6	2	10	-8	20
15	Setubal	17	4	7	6	-5	19
16	Belenenses	18	5	4	9	-13	19
17	Vitoria Setubal	16	3	7	6	-7	16
18	Aves	18	5	1	12	-13	16
19	Tondela	18	3	5	10	-13	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	18	12	4	2	+20	40
2	Porto	18	12	3	3	+19	39
3	Rio Ave	18	10	4	4	+9	34
4	Famalicao	18	8	6	4	+1	30
5	Sp Braga	18	8	2	8	+8	26
6	Sp Lisbon	18	7	5	6	+5	26
7	Guimaraes	18	5	8	5	+3	23
8	Santa Clara	18	5	7	6	-2	22
9	Pacos Ferreira	18	6	4	8	-8	22
10	Moreirense	18	4	8	6	-5	20
11	Tondela	17	5	5	7	-5	20
12	Boavista	18	5	5	8	-9	20
13	Gil Vicente	18	5	3	10	-8	18
14	Maritimo	18	4	5	9	-11	17
15	Belenenses	17	4	4	9	-15	16
16	Setubal	17	3	6	8	-11	15
17	Vitoria Setubal	17	3	6	8	-11	15
18	Portimonense	18	2	6	10	-15	12
19	Aves	17	1	1	15	-29	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.