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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Godinho

Belenenses

U T T U T

0–1

Full-time

Moreirense

T U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

1,2

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

2,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/32 matches

Win Ø 27%

26%

28%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

39%

34%

Both score Ø 53%

42%

63%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

10 Shots 16

0 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

11 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 21

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 15. · Moreirense 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	33	26	4	3	+54	82
2	Benfica	33	22	6	5	+39	72
3	Sp Lisbon	32	19	5	8	+20	62
4	Sp Braga	33	18	5	10	+22	59
5	Rio Ave	33	16	8	9	+12	56
6	Famalicao	32	14	10	8	+4	52
7	Guimaraes	33	13	11	9	+18	50
8	Gil Vicente	33	11	10	12	-3	43
9	Moreirense	32	9	14	9	+3	41
10	Boavista	33	11	8	14	-7	41
11	Santa Clara	33	10	10	13	-8	40
12	Maritimo	33	9	12	12	-7	39
13	Pacos Ferreira	33	11	4	18	-17	37
14	Tondela	33	7	10	16	-18	31
15	Belenenses	31	8	7	16	-26	31
16	Setubal	31	6	12	13	-17	30
17	Vitoria Setubal	31	6	12	13	-17	30
18	Portimonense	33	5	14	14	-17	29
19	Aves	33	6	2	25	-35	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	14	1	1	+34	43
2	Sp Lisbon	16	12	0	4	+12	36
3	Benfica	16	11	2	3	+23	35
4	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+13	33
5	Famalicao	17	8	5	4	+5	29
6	Guimaraes	17	8	4	5	+13	28
7	Rio Ave	17	7	5	5	+5	26
8	Gil Vicente	16	6	7	3	+4	25
9	Moreirense	16	6	6	4	+4	24
10	Maritimo	16	5	7	4	+3	22
11	Boavista	17	6	4	7	+1	22
12	Santa Clara	16	5	4	7	-6	19
13	Portimonense	16	3	8	5	-3	17
14	Pacos Ferreira	17	5	2	10	-9	17
15	Setubal	15	3	7	5	-6	16
16	Vitoria Setubal	15	3	7	5	-6	16
17	Aves	17	5	1	11	-9	16
18	Belenenses	16	4	4	8	-13	16
19	Tondela	17	2	5	10	-14	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	12	3	2	+20	39
2	Benfica	17	11	4	2	+16	37
3	Rio Ave	16	9	3	4	+7	30
4	Sp Braga	17	8	2	7	+9	26
5	Sp Lisbon	16	7	5	4	+8	26
6	Famalicao	15	6	5	4	-1	23
7	Guimaraes	16	5	7	4	+5	22
8	Santa Clara	17	5	6	6	-2	21
9	Tondela	16	5	5	6	-4	20
10	Pacos Ferreira	16	6	2	8	-8	20
11	Boavista	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Gil Vicente	17	5	3	9	-7	18
13	Moreirense	16	3	8	5	-1	17
14	Maritimo	17	4	5	8	-10	17
15	Belenenses	15	4	3	8	-13	15
16	Setubal	16	3	5	8	-11	14
17	Vitoria Setubal	16	3	5	8	-11	14
18	Portimonense	17	2	6	9	-14	12
19	Aves	16	1	1	14	-26	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.