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Ligue 1

Referee: M Bollengier

Ajaccio

T S T T T

2–1

Full-time

Troyes

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajaccio Troyes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

0,3

0,7

Conceded

2,2

3,0

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 19%

21%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

42%

75%

Average goals

2,6

3,6

Scored

0,8

1,4

Conceded

1,9

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

3,98 xG 1,55

54% Possession 46%

14 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Ajaccio 19. · Troyes 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	24	18	3	3	+36	+1.7	57
2	Marseille	24	16	4	4	+26	+2.2	52
3	Monaco	24	15	5	4	+22	+3.7	50
4	Lens	25	14	8	3	+19	+4.2	50
5	Lille	25	13	5	7	+13	+4.8	44
6	Rennes	24	13	4	7	+16	+1.8	43
7	Lorient	25	11	6	8	+2	-1.0	39
8	Lyon	25	11	5	9	+11	+1.3	38
9	Nice	24	10	8	6	+9	+0.1	38
10	Reims	24	7	13	4	+4	+6.0	34
11	Toulouse	24	9	5	10	-1	+1.8	32
12	Clermont	24	8	6	10	-9	-3.4	30
13	Nantes	24	6	10	8	-4	-3.3	28
14	Montpellier	25	8	3	14	-10	-3.0	27
15	Strasbourg	24	4	9	11	-13	-3.3	21
16	Auxerre	25	5	6	14	-26	+3.2	21
17	Brest	25	4	8	13	-16	-5.3	20
18	Troyes	24	4	7	13	-20	-5.7	19
19	Ajaccio	24	5	3	16	-27	-1.5	18
20	Angers	25	2	4	19	-32	-4.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rennes	13	11	0	2	+20	+1.8	33
2	Lens	12	11	0	1	+16	+0.6	33
3	Paris SG	12	10	2	0	+17	-0.2	32
4	Lille	13	8	3	2	+7	+3.5	27
5	Monaco	12	7	2	3	+10	+1.9	23
6	Marseille	12	7	2	3	+10	+0.8	23
7	Toulouse	13	6	4	3	+5	+2.7	22
8	Lyon	12	6	3	3	+9	+2.3	21
9	Lorient	13	6	3	4	+4	+2.4	21
10	Nice	12	5	4	3	+6	-0.5	19
11	Reims	11	5	4	2	+5	+5.2	19
12	Nantes	11	4	5	2	+2	-0.6	17
13	Montpellier	13	4	2	7	-5	-3.4	14
14	Clermont	12	4	2	6	-10	-2.0	14
15	Auxerre	12	3	4	5	-9	+2.1	13
16	Strasbourg	13	2	6	5	-5	+0.3	12
17	Brest	12	2	5	5	-7	-0.7	11
18	Troyes	12	1	7	4	-6	-3.1	10
19	Ajaccio	11	2	1	8	-11	-0.5	7
20	Angers	13	1	2	10	-14	-2.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	12	9	2	1	+16	+1.3	29
2	Monaco	12	8	3	1	+12	+1.8	27
3	Paris SG	12	8	1	3	+19	+1.8	25
4	Nice	12	5	4	3	+3	+0.6	19
5	Lorient	12	5	3	4	-2	-3.4	18
6	Lille	12	5	2	5	+6	+1.3	17
7	Lens	13	3	8	2	+3	+3.7	17
8	Lyon	13	5	2	6	+2	-1.1	17
9	Clermont	12	4	4	4	+1	-1.5	16
10	Reims	13	2	9	2	-1	+0.9	15
11	Montpellier	12	4	1	7	-5	+0.4	13
12	Nantes	13	2	5	6	-6	-2.7	11
13	Ajaccio	13	3	2	8	-16	-1.0	11
14	Rennes	11	2	4	5	-4	-0.0	10
15	Toulouse	11	3	1	7	-6	-0.9	10
16	Strasbourg	11	2	3	6	-8	-3.6	9
17	Brest	13	2	3	8	-9	-4.6	9
18	Troyes	12	3	0	9	-14	-2.6	9
19	Auxerre	13	2	2	9	-17	+1.1	8
20	Angers	12	1	2	9	-18	-1.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.