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Super League
Referee: S Wolfensberger
Lugano
S U T U U
2–2
Full-time
Basel
T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Basel
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,8
Scored
1,5
1,5
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,2
This season — Super League · 21/21 matches
Win Ø 34%
38%
29%
Points per game
1,4
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
57%
43%
Both score Ø 64%
71%
57%
Average goals
3,0
2,6
Scored
1,5
1,4
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

41% Possession 59%
12 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 4
2 Offside 1
17 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lugano 5. · Basel 6. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Young Boys 22 13 8 1 +35 47
2 Servette 21 8 9 4 +0 33
3 St. Gallen 22 9 5 8 +11 32
4 Luzern 22 7 9 6 +2 30
5 Lugano 21 8 5 8 +0 29
6 Basel 21 6 8 7 +4 26
7 Grasshoppers 22 6 6 10 -5 24
8 Zurich 22 5 9 8 -11 24
9 Sion 22 5 7 10 -14 22
10 Winterthur 21 5 6 10 -22 21

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

9. Oct -22 Lugano – Basel 1–0 14. Aug -22 Basel – Lugano 0–2 22. May -22 Basel – Lugano 2–1 6. Mar -22 Lugano – Basel 0–2 24. Oct -21 Basel – Lugano 2–0

Match report

Lugano Basel
4′
🟨 Hugo Vogel
31′
🟨 Taulant Xhaka
1–0 Ž. Celar ⚽
R. Macek
33′
2–0 I. Aliseda ⚽
R. Macek
38′
42′
🟨 Wouter Burger
Half-time 2–0
B. Babic 🔁
↦ Ž. Celar
46′
46′
🔁 R. Calafiori
↦ A. Diouf
46′
🔁 M. Lang
↦ H. Vogel
68′
🟨 Bradley Fink
69′
🔁 A. Zeqiri
↦ B. Fink
69′
🔁 Hugo Novoa
↦ Z. Amdouni
69′
🔁 A. Kade
↦ D. Ndoye
M. Bottani 🔁
↦ I. Aliseda
70′
74′
⚽ D. Males 2–1
Hugo Novoa
83′
⚽ M. Lang 2–2
D. Males
L. Mai 🔁
↦ U. Bislimi
84′
J. Espinoza 🔁
↦ R. Macek
84′
Kreshnik Hajrizi 🟨
92′
93′
🟨 Michael Lang
Albian Hajdari 🟨
94′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Lugano

3-4-3
1 A. Saipi G
20 O. Doumbia D
4 K. Hajrizi D
5 A. Hajdari D
77 R. Macek M
14 J. Sabbatini M
25 U. Bislimi M
23 M. Valenzuela M
11 R. Steffen F
9 Ž. Celar F
31 I. Aliseda F
Bench (8)
27 B. Babic
10 M. Bottani
15 L. Mai
6 J. Espinoza
47 M. Amoura
24 C. Nkama
58 S. Osigwe
7 M. Facchinetti

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Basel

4-1-4-1
1 M. Hitz G
22 Sergio López D
21 A. Pelmard D
23 W. Burger D
28 H. Vogel D
34 T. Xhaka M
19 D. Males M
8 A. Diouf M
9 Z. Amdouni M
27 D. Ndoye M
14 B. Fink F
Bench (8)
33 R. Calafiori
5 M. Lang
17 A. Zeqiri
90 Hugo Novoa
30 A. Kade
18 E. Essiam
13 M. Salvi
7 L. Millar

Coach: H. Vogel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
–
🔒
U ✓
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Wolfensberger · 81 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.