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Serie A

Referee: M Mariani

Milan

T T S S S

2–0

Full-time

Atalanta

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 55%

57%

52%

Points per game

1,9

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

65%

48%

Both score Ø 61%

65%

57%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,76 xG 0,11

48% Possession 52%

13 Shots 3

3 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 5. · Atalanta 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	24	21	2	1	+43	+6.4	65
2	Juventus	23	14	5	4	+19	+2.9	47
3	Inter	24	15	2	7	+16	+5.8	47
4	Roma	23	13	5	5	+11	+3.1	44
5	Milan	23	13	5	5	+9	-1.3	44
6	Lazio	23	12	6	5	+20	+2.1	42
7	Atalanta	23	12	5	6	+16	+2.4	41
8	Bologna	24	10	5	9	-2	-0.5	35
9	Udinese	24	7	10	7	+3	-1.2	31
10	Torino	23	8	7	8	-1	+1.9	31
11	Monza	24	8	5	11	-6	-2.6	29
12	Empoli	24	6	10	8	-9	-4.0	28
13	Lecce	24	6	9	9	-3	-0.9	27
14	Sassuolo	24	7	6	11	-8	-0.3	27
15	Fiorentina	23	6	7	10	-6	+2.3	25
16	Salernitana	24	6	6	12	-16	-4.8	24
17	Spezia	24	4	8	12	-20	-3.4	20
18	Verona	23	4	5	14	-14	-1.2	17
19	Sampdoria	23	2	5	16	-27	-1.8	11
20	Cremonese	23	0	9	14	-25	-4.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	11	10	1	0	+23	+1.8	31
2	Inter	12	10	0	2	+19	+3.3	30
3	Juventus	12	8	3	1	+17	+1.6	27
4	Milan	11	8	1	2	+9	-0.2	25
5	Roma	11	7	1	3	+8	-0.1	22
6	Bologna	13	6	4	3	+7	+1.1	22
7	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+9	-0.2	21
8	Atalanta	11	5	2	4	+7	+2.0	17
9	Udinese	12	3	7	2	+5	+2.1	16
10	Torino	11	4	4	3	+2	+2.7	16
11	Fiorentina	12	4	4	4	-2	+2.2	16
12	Empoli	12	4	4	4	-2	-2.5	16
13	Monza	12	4	3	5	+2	-0.8	15
14	Salernitana	13	4	3	6	-1	-4.0	15
15	Sassuolo	11	4	2	5	+0	-0.1	14
16	Verona	12	4	1	7	-4	+0.3	13
17	Lecce	12	2	6	4	-2	-1.0	12
18	Spezia	12	2	6	4	-6	-2.3	12
19	Cremonese	11	0	3	8	-14	-2.3	3
20	Sampdoria	12	0	3	9	-15	+0.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	13	11	1	1	+20	+4.6	34
2	Atalanta	12	7	3	2	+9	+0.4	24
3	Roma	12	6	4	2	+3	+3.2	22
4	Lazio	11	6	3	2	+11	+2.3	21
5	Juventus	11	6	2	3	+2	+1.3	20
6	Milan	12	5	4	3	+0	-1.2	19
7	Inter	12	5	2	5	-3	+2.5	17
8	Lecce	12	4	3	5	-1	+0.2	15
9	Udinese	12	4	3	5	-2	-3.3	15
10	Torino	12	4	3	5	-3	-0.8	15
11	Monza	12	4	2	6	-8	-1.8	14
12	Sassuolo	13	3	4	6	-8	-0.2	13
13	Bologna	11	4	1	6	-9	-1.6	13
14	Empoli	12	2	6	4	-7	-1.5	12
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-4	+0.1	9
16	Salernitana	11	2	3	6	-15	-0.9	9
17	Sampdoria	11	2	2	7	-12	-1.9	8
18	Spezia	12	2	2	8	-14	-1.1	8
19	Cremonese	12	0	6	6	-11	-2.5	6
20	Verona	11	0	4	7	-10	-1.6	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.