Ligue 1
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Lyon
Reims
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris SG
|
12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | +22 | 25 |
| 2 |
Lille
|
11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | +14 | 22 |
| 3 |
Marseille
|
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 21 |
| 4 |
Lyon
|
11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 5 |
Monaco
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 20 |
| 6 |
Montpellier
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 20 |
| 7 |
Rennes
|
12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | +3 | 19 |
| 8 |
Lens
|
10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 18 |
| 9 |
Nice
|
10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 17 |
| 10 |
Metz
|
11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +3 | 16 |
| 11 |
Bordeaux
|
12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 |
Angers
|
11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 16 |
| 13 |
Brest
|
11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 15 |
| 14 |
Nantes
|
12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |
Nimes
|
11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 16 |
St Etienne
|
11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 |
Reims
|
11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 9 |
| 18 |
Lorient
|
11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 8 |
| 19 |
Strasbourg
|
12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -10 | 7 |
| 20 |
Dijon
|
11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -15 | 4 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Angers
Lyon
Lyon
St Etienne
Lille
Lyon
Lyon
Monaco
Strasbourg
Lyon
J Miguelgorry · 36 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.