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Serie A

Referee: M Ferrieri Caputi

Fiorentina

S S U U U

1–0

Full-time

Verona

T T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Verona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 30%

47%

13%

Points per game

1,6

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

53%

47%

Both score Ø 50%

47%

53%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,6

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,49 xG 2,58

66% Possession 34%

5 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 5

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 6

2 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 7. · Verona 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	12	2	1	+30	+21.8	38
2	Juventus	16	11	4	1	+14	+14.6	37
3	Milan	16	10	2	4	+11	+2.2	32
4	Napoli	16	8	3	5	+9	+12.8	27
5	Roma	15	7	4	4	+11	+6.9	25
6	Bologna	15	6	7	2	+6	+5.0	25
7	Fiorentina	15	7	3	5	+6	-0.9	24
8	Atalanta	15	7	2	6	+6	+4.5	23
9	Torino	16	6	5	5	-2	+0.0	23
10	Lazio	15	6	3	6	+0	+2.6	21
11	Monza	16	5	6	5	-1	-3.9	21
12	Lecce	16	4	8	4	-2	-9.5	20
13	Frosinone	16	5	4	7	-5	-5.6	19
14	Genoa	16	4	4	8	-5	-1.0	16
15	Sassuolo	15	4	3	8	-6	-7.7	15
16	Cagliari	16	3	4	9	-13	-6.1	13
17	Udinese	15	1	9	5	-13	-1.8	12
18	Empoli	16	3	3	10	-18	-7.0	12
19	Verona	15	2	5	8	-9	-9.9	11
20	Salernitana	15	1	5	9	-19	-17.0	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	8	6	2	0	+8	+9.2	20
2	Inter	8	6	1	1	+16	+13.5	19
3	Milan	8	6	0	2	+10	+3.6	18
4	Roma	8	5	2	1	+12	+5.3	17
5	Frosinone	8	5	2	1	+4	-1.7	17
6	Bologna	7	5	1	1	+6	+2.9	16
7	Torino	8	4	3	1	+3	+3.7	15
8	Lecce	9	4	3	2	+0	-1.5	15
9	Lazio	7	4	2	1	+4	+4.8	14
10	Atalanta	7	4	1	2	+6	+3.6	13
11	Fiorentina	7	4	1	2	+5	+2.9	13
12	Monza	8	3	4	1	+5	+1.5	13
13	Genoa	8	3	3	2	+1	-0.3	12
14	Cagliari	8	3	2	3	-4	+1.5	11
15	Napoli	8	3	1	4	-1	+5.1	10
16	Sassuolo	8	2	2	4	-2	-0.6	8
17	Verona	7	1	3	3	-4	-2.1	6
18	Salernitana	8	1	3	4	-9	-5.8	6
19	Udinese	7	0	5	2	-5	+4.3	5
20	Empoli	8	1	2	5	-7	-1.9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	7	6	1	0	+14	+8.3	19
2	Napoli	8	5	2	1	+10	+7.7	17
3	Juventus	8	5	2	1	+6	+5.4	17
4	Milan	8	4	2	2	+1	-1.4	14
5	Fiorentina	8	3	2	3	+1	-3.8	11
6	Atalanta	8	3	1	4	+0	+0.8	10
7	Bologna	8	1	6	1	+0	+2.1	9
8	Roma	7	2	2	3	-1	+1.6	8
9	Torino	8	2	2	4	-5	-3.7	8
10	Monza	8	2	2	4	-6	-5.3	8
11	Sassuolo	7	2	1	4	-4	-7.1	7
12	Lazio	8	2	1	5	-4	-2.2	7
13	Udinese	8	1	4	3	-8	-6.1	7
14	Empoli	8	2	1	5	-11	-5.1	7
15	Lecce	7	0	5	2	-2	-8.0	5
16	Verona	8	1	2	5	-5	-7.9	5
17	Genoa	8	1	1	6	-6	-0.8	4
18	Frosinone	8	0	2	6	-9	-3.9	2
19	Cagliari	8	0	2	6	-9	-7.5	2
20	Salernitana	7	0	2	5	-10	-11.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.