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Champions League
Referee: F Letexier
Dinamo Zagreb
S S T U T
2–1
Full-time
Milan
U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dinamo Zagreb Milan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/7 matches
Win Ø 58%
44%
71%
Points per game
1,6
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
67%
71%
Both score Ø 52%
33%
71%
Average goals
3,7
3,1
Scored
1,7
1,9
Conceded
2,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,19 xG 1,11
43% Possession 57%
12 Shots 14
5 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 4
5 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 16
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

25. Oct -22 Dinamo Zagreb – Milan 0–4 14. Sep -22 Milan – Dinamo Zagreb 3–1

Match report

Dinamo Zagreb Milan
1–0 M. Baturina ⚽
19′
26′
🟨 Christian Pulišić
Josip Mišić 🟨
31′
31′
🟨 Yunus Musah
Marko Pjaca 🟨
34′
39′
🟨 Mike Maignan
39′
🟨 Yunus Musah
39′
🟥 Yunus Musah
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 F. Terracciano
↦ M. Gabbia
46′
🔁 S. Chukwueze
↦ Álvaro Morata
53′
⚽ C. Pulišić 1–1
F. Tomori
2–1 M. Pjaca ⚽
R. Pierre-Gabriel
60′
64′
ℹ️ Rafael Leão
VAR: Penalty cancelled
M. Rog 🔁
↦ A. Ademi
70′
S. Ristovski 🔁
↦ M. Pjaca
70′
J. Córdoba 🔁
↦ L. Stojković
74′
82′
🔁 T. Abraham
↦ T. Reijnders
82′
🔁 N. Okafor
↦ Rafael Leão
L. Jakirović 🔁
↦ R. Pierre-Gabriel
93′
N. Mbuku 🔁
↦ M. Baturina
93′
Ivan Nevistić 🟨
94′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb

4-2-3-1
33 I. Nevistić G
28 K. Théophile-Catherine D
13 S. Mmaee D
4 Raúl Torrente D
18 R. Pierre-Gabriel D
5 A. Ademi M
27 J. Mišić M
7 L. Stojković M
10 M. Baturina M
20 M. Pjaca M
17 S. Kulenović F
Bench (12)
30 M. Rog
22 S. Ristovski
19 J. Córdoba
86 L. Jakirović
21 N. Mbuku
49 M. Ćutuk
66 B. Pavić
35 N. Mikić
1 D. Zagorac
11 A. Hoxha
77 D. Špikić
23 I. Filipović

Coach: F. Cannavaro

Milan

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
23 F. Tomori D
46 M. Gabbia D
31 S. Pavlović D
19 T. Hernández D
29 Y. Fofana M
14 T. Reijnders M
80 Y. Musah M
11 C. Pulišić M
10 Rafael Leão M
7 Álvaro Morata F
Bench (9)
42 F. Terracciano
21 S. Chukwueze
90 T. Abraham
17 N. Okafor
57 M. Sportiello
96 L. Torriani
73 F. Camarda
33 D. Bartesaghi
4 I. Bennacer

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.