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Serie A

Referee: M Piccinini

Atalanta

U S T T S

1–2

Full-time

Lecce

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 39%

55%

23%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

45%

32%

Both score Ø 60%

55%

64%

Average goals

3,0

2,1

Scored

1,9

1,0

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,46 xG 0,43

70% Possession 30%

20 Shots 4

10 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 9

6 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 5. · Lecce 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	23	20	2	1	+41	+4.4	62
2	Inter	23	15	2	6	+17	+6.1	47
3	Juventus	22	13	5	4	+17	+3.1	44
4	Milan	23	13	5	5	+9	-1.3	44
5	Atalanta	22	12	5	5	+17	+1.4	41
6	Roma	22	12	5	5	+10	+2.7	41
7	Lazio	22	11	6	5	+18	-0.5	39
8	Bologna	23	9	5	9	-3	-0.7	32
9	Udinese	23	7	9	7	+3	-1.2	30
10	Torino	22	8	6	8	-1	+0.3	30
11	Monza	23	8	5	10	-3	-1.6	29
12	Empoli	22	6	9	7	-7	-0.5	27
13	Lecce	22	5	9	8	-3	+0.1	24
14	Fiorentina	22	6	6	10	-6	+0.8	24
15	Sassuolo	23	6	6	11	-9	-0.2	24
16	Salernitana	22	5	6	11	-17	-3.3	21
17	Spezia	22	4	7	11	-18	-3.5	19
18	Verona	22	4	5	13	-13	-0.9	17
19	Sampdoria	23	2	5	16	-27	-1.8	11
20	Cremonese	22	0	8	14	-25	-3.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	11	10	1	0	+23	+1.8	31
2	Inter	12	10	0	2	+19	+3.3	30
3	Juventus	12	8	3	1	+17	+1.6	27
4	Milan	11	8	1	2	+9	-0.2	25
5	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+9	-0.2	21
6	Roma	10	6	1	3	+7	-0.5	19
7	Bologna	12	5	4	3	+6	+0.9	19
8	Atalanta	10	5	2	3	+8	+1.0	17
9	Empoli	11	4	4	3	+0	-0.4	16
10	Udinese	11	3	6	2	+5	+2.1	15
11	Monza	12	4	3	5	+2	-0.8	15
12	Torino	10	4	3	3	+2	+1.1	15
13	Fiorentina	11	4	3	4	-2	+0.7	15
14	Sassuolo	11	4	2	5	+0	-0.1	14
15	Verona	12	4	1	7	-4	+0.3	13
16	Lecce	11	2	6	3	-1	-1.1	12
17	Salernitana	11	3	3	5	-2	-2.4	12
18	Spezia	11	2	6	3	-4	-2.4	12
19	Cremonese	11	0	3	8	-14	-2.3	3
20	Sampdoria	12	0	3	9	-15	+0.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	12	10	1	1	+18	+2.5	31
2	Atalanta	12	7	3	2	+9	+0.4	24
3	Roma	12	6	4	2	+3	+3.2	22
4	Milan	12	5	4	3	+0	-1.2	19
5	Lazio	10	5	3	2	+9	-0.3	18
6	Juventus	10	5	2	3	+0	+1.5	17
7	Inter	11	5	2	4	-2	+2.7	17
8	Udinese	12	4	3	5	-2	-3.3	15
9	Torino	12	4	3	5	-3	-0.8	15
10	Monza	11	4	2	5	-5	-0.8	14
11	Bologna	11	4	1	6	-9	-1.6	13
12	Lecce	11	3	3	5	-2	+1.2	12
13	Empoli	11	2	5	4	-7	-0.1	11
14	Sassuolo	12	2	4	6	-9	-0.1	10
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-4	+0.1	9
16	Salernitana	11	2	3	6	-15	-0.9	9
17	Sampdoria	11	2	2	7	-12	-1.9	8
18	Spezia	11	2	1	8	-14	-1.1	7
19	Cremonese	11	0	5	6	-11	-1.0	5
20	Verona	10	0	4	6	-9	-1.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.