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Serie A
Referee: D Massa
Salernitana
T T T S S
2–1
Full-time
Fiorentina
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salernitana Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,0
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,7
This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 35%
16%
53%
Points per game
0,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
59%
63%
Both score Ø 52%
47%
56%
Average goals
3,0
2,9
Scored
0,8
1,7
Conceded
2,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

28% Possession 72%
10 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 4
3 Offside 2
15 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Salernitana 20. · Fiorentina 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 33 21 9 3 +45 72
2 Milan 33 21 8 4 +29 71
3 Napoli 33 20 7 6 +32 67
4 Juventus 33 18 9 6 +21 63
5 Roma 34 17 7 10 +15 58
6 Lazio 33 16 8 9 +17 56
7 Fiorentina 32 17 5 10 +13 56
8 Atalanta 33 15 9 9 +18 54
9 Verona 34 13 10 11 +8 49
10 Sassuolo 33 12 10 11 +5 46
11 Torino 33 11 10 12 +6 43
12 Udinese 32 9 12 11 -3 39
13 Bologna 32 10 8 14 -10 38
14 Empoli 33 8 10 15 -18 34
15 Spezia 34 9 6 19 -25 33
16 Sampdoria 34 8 6 20 -16 30
17 Cagliari 33 6 10 17 -30 28
18 Genoa 33 2 16 15 -30 22
19 Venezia 33 5 7 21 -34 22
20 Salernitana 32 5 7 20 -43 22

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Salernitana Fiorentina
1–0 M. Đurić
E. Bohinen
9′
Norbert Gyömbér 🟨
22′
Half-time 1–0
F. Ribéry 🔁
↦ S. Verdi
46′
46′
🔁 R. Saponara
↦ J. Ikoné
59′
🔁 Odriozola
↦ L. Venuti
59′
🔁 K. Piątek
↦ Arthur Cabral
64′
R. Saponara 1–1
67′
🔁 A. Terzić
↦ C. Biraghi
67′
🔁 José Callejón
↦ Y. Maleh
G. Kastanos 🔁
↦ L. Coulibaly
75′
F. Bonazzoli 🔁
↦ M. Đurić
75′
M. Ruggeri 🔁
↦ N. Zortea
75′
2–1 F. Bonazzoli
79′
82′
🟨 Nikola Milenković
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Salernitana

3-5-2
55 L. Sepe G
17 F. Fazio D
23 N. Gyömbér D
30 P. Mazzocchi M
19 L. Ranieri D
21 N. Zortea M
18 L. Coulibaly M
15 E. Bohinen M
13 Éderson M
11 M. Đurić F
10 S. Verdi F
Bench (12)
7 F. Ribéry
20 G. Kastanos
9 F. Bonazzoli
3 M. Ruggeri
12 Antonio Russo
28 L. Capezzi
88 D. Perotti
33 F. Delli Carri
14 F. Di Tacchio
72 V. Belec
25 R. Drăgușin
87 Mikael

Coach: D. Nicola

Fiorentina

4-3-3
1 P. Terracciano G
3 C. Biraghi D
23 L. Venuti D
98 Igor D
4 N. Milenković D
32 A. Duncan M
34 S. Amrabat M
11 J. Ikoné F
14 Y. Maleh M
9 Arthur Cabral F
22 N. González F
Bench (12)
8 R. Saponara
29 Odriozola
19 K. Piątek
17 A. Terzić
7 José Callejón
91 A. Kokorin
33 R. Sottil
69 B. Drągowski
5 G. Bonaventura
42 A. Bianco
55 M. Nastasić
2 L. Martínez

Coach: V. Italiano

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
5,45
U
3,99
B
1,64
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,77
U2,5
2,07
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Massa · 154 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.