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Serie A

Referee: G Calvarese

Lazio

S S T S S

0–3

Full-time

Milan

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

This season — Serie A · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 57%

72%

41%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

72%

45%

Both score Ø 59%

66%

52%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

47% Possession 53%

8 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 1

2 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 2. · Milan 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	30	24	3	3	+37	75
2	Lazio	29	21	5	3	+38	68
3	Inter	29	19	7	3	+33	64
4	Atalanta	29	18	6	5	+43	60
5	Roma	29	14	6	9	+13	48
6	Napoli	29	13	6	10	+7	45
7	Milan	29	12	7	10	-1	43
8	Verona	29	11	9	9	+3	42
9	Sassuolo	30	11	7	12	+3	40
10	Cagliari	29	10	9	10	+3	39
11	Parma	29	11	6	12	+2	39
12	Bologna	29	10	8	11	-5	38
13	Fiorentina	29	7	10	12	-7	31
14	Udinese	29	8	7	14	-16	31
15	Torino	30	9	4	17	-22	31
16	Sampdoria	29	8	5	16	-18	29
17	Genoa	29	6	8	15	-21	26
18	Lecce	30	6	7	17	-32	25
19	Spal	29	5	4	20	-27	19
20	Brescia	29	4	6	19	-33	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	15	14	1	0	+28	43
2	Lazio	15	12	3	0	+30	39
3	Inter	15	9	5	1	+20	32
4	Atalanta	15	9	2	4	+20	29
5	Verona	15	8	3	4	+5	27
6	Roma	15	7	3	5	+6	24
7	Sassuolo	15	7	2	6	+8	23
8	Cagliari	14	6	2	6	+4	20
9	Napoli	14	6	2	6	+1	20
10	Milan	14	5	5	4	+0	20
11	Parma	14	6	1	7	+4	19
12	Udinese	14	5	4	5	-3	19
13	Bologna	15	4	6	5	-4	18
14	Torino	15	5	3	7	-11	18
15	Sampdoria	15	4	4	7	-7	16
16	Fiorentina	15	3	6	6	-6	15
17	Genoa	14	4	1	9	-9	13
18	Lecce	15	2	5	8	-11	11
19	Spal	14	2	3	9	-10	9
20	Brescia	14	1	4	9	-12	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	14	10	2	2	+13	32
2	Juventus	15	10	2	3	+9	32
3	Atalanta	14	9	4	1	+23	31
4	Lazio	14	9	2	3	+8	29
5	Napoli	15	7	4	4	+6	25
6	Roma	14	7	3	4	+7	24
7	Milan	15	7	2	6	-1	23
8	Bologna	14	6	2	6	-1	20
9	Parma	15	5	5	5	-2	20
10	Cagliari	15	4	7	4	-1	19
11	Sassuolo	15	4	5	6	-5	17
12	Fiorentina	14	4	4	6	-1	16
13	Verona	14	3	6	5	-2	15
14	Lecce	15	4	2	9	-21	14
15	Torino	15	4	1	10	-11	13
16	Sampdoria	14	4	1	9	-11	13
17	Genoa	15	2	7	6	-12	13
18	Udinese	15	3	3	9	-13	12
19	Brescia	15	3	2	10	-21	11
20	Spal	15	3	1	11	-17	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.