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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Vitoria Setubal

U U T T T

2–3

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/31 matches

Win Ø 27%

21%

32%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

38%

48%

Both score Ø 43%

41%

45%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

49% Possession 51%

7 Shots 21

3 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 16. · Pacos Ferreira 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	31	24	4	3	+47	76
2	Benfica	31	21	5	5	+37	68
3	Sp Lisbon	30	18	4	8	+19	58
4	Sp Braga	31	16	5	10	+14	53
5	Rio Ave	31	15	8	8	+12	53
6	Famalicao	30	13	9	8	+3	48
7	Guimaraes	31	12	11	8	+18	47
8	Boavista	31	11	8	12	-4	41
9	Moreirense	31	9	13	9	+3	40
10	Santa Clara	32	10	10	12	-7	40
11	Gil Vicente	31	9	10	12	-5	37
12	Maritimo	32	8	12	12	-8	36
13	Pacos Ferreira	31	10	4	17	-14	34
14	Tondela	31	7	10	14	-15	31
15	Belenenses	30	8	7	15	-21	31
16	Vitoria Setubal	29	6	12	11	-15	30
17	Setubal	30	6	12	12	-16	30
18	Portimonense	31	5	14	12	-15	29
19	Aves	30	4	2	24	-33	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	1	1	+29	40
2	Sp Lisbon	15	11	0	4	+11	33
3	Benfica	15	10	2	3	+21	32
4	Sp Braga	15	9	3	3	+9	30
5	Guimaraes	16	8	4	4	+14	28
6	Famalicao	16	8	4	4	+5	28
7	Rio Ave	16	6	5	5	+4	23
8	Moreirense	15	6	5	4	+4	23
9	Maritimo	16	5	7	4	+3	22
10	Gil Vicente	15	5	7	3	+3	22
11	Boavista	16	6	4	6	+2	22
12	Santa Clara	16	5	4	7	-6	19
13	Portimonense	15	3	8	4	-2	17
14	Pacos Ferreira	16	5	2	9	-5	17
15	Vitoria Setubal	14	3	7	4	-5	16
16	Setubal	15	3	7	5	-6	16
17	Belenenses	16	4	4	8	-13	16
18	Tondela	15	2	5	8	-11	11
19	Aves	15	3	1	11	-11	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	11	3	2	+18	36
2	Benfica	16	11	3	2	+16	36
3	Rio Ave	15	9	3	3	+8	30
4	Sp Lisbon	15	7	4	4	+8	25
5	Sp Braga	16	7	2	7	+5	23
6	Santa Clara	16	5	6	5	-1	21
7	Famalicao	14	5	5	4	-2	20
8	Tondela	16	5	5	6	-4	20
9	Guimaraes	15	4	7	4	+4	19
10	Boavista	15	5	4	6	-6	19
11	Moreirense	16	3	8	5	-1	17
12	Pacos Ferreira	15	5	2	8	-9	17
13	Gil Vicente	16	4	3	9	-8	15
14	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-8	15
15	Setubal	15	3	5	7	-10	14
16	Vitoria Setubal	15	3	5	7	-10	14
17	Maritimo	16	3	5	8	-11	14
18	Portimonense	16	2	6	8	-13	12
19	Aves	15	1	1	13	-22	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.