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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Valeri

Spal

S U S T T

2–3

Full-time

Milan

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spal Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,8

1,8

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

This season — Serie A · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 40%

30%

49%

Points per game

1,1

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

51%

43%

Both score Ø 54%

54%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

57% Possession 43%

10 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 4

0 Offside 5

17 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spal 12. · Milan 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	38	28	6	4	+40	90
2	Napoli	38	24	7	7	+38	79
3	Atalanta	37	19	9	9	+29	66
4	Inter	37	19	9	9	+23	66
5	Milan	37	18	11	8	+18	65
6	Roma	37	17	12	8	+17	63
7	Torino	38	16	15	7	+15	63
8	Lazio	38	17	8	13	+10	59
9	Sampdoria	38	15	8	15	+9	53
10	Bologna	38	11	11	16	-8	44
11	Sassuolo	37	9	16	12	-5	43
12	Spal	37	11	9	17	-11	42
13	Cagliari	37	10	11	16	-17	41
14	Parma	37	10	11	16	-19	41
15	Fiorentina	37	8	16	13	+2	40
16	Udinese	37	10	10	17	-15	40
17	Empoli	37	10	8	19	-18	38
18	Genoa	37	8	13	16	-18	37
19	Frosinone	38	5	10	23	-40	25
20	Chievo	38	2	14	22	-50	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	19	15	4	0	+26	49
2	Napoli	19	13	4	2	+25	43
3	Milan	19	12	4	3	+14	40
4	Roma	18	11	5	2	+16	38
5	Torino	19	12	2	5	+13	38
6	Inter	18	10	5	3	+16	35
7	Atalanta	18	9	5	4	+15	32
8	Sampdoria	19	10	2	7	+12	32
9	Lazio	19	9	5	5	+11	32
10	Bologna	19	9	4	6	+6	31
11	Cagliari	18	8	6	4	+4	30
12	Empoli	19	9	3	7	+3	30
13	Udinese	19	8	5	6	+0	29
14	Genoa	19	6	8	5	-1	26
15	Sassuolo	19	5	10	4	+0	25
16	Fiorentina	18	5	8	5	+6	23
17	Spal	18	5	7	6	-5	22
18	Parma	19	5	7	7	-7	22
19	Chievo	19	1	7	11	-23	10
20	Frosinone	19	1	6	12	-24	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	19	13	2	4	+14	41
2	Napoli	19	11	3	5	+13	36
3	Atalanta	19	10	4	5	+14	34
4	Inter	19	9	4	6	+7	31
5	Lazio	19	8	3	8	-1	27
6	Milan	18	6	7	5	+4	25
7	Torino	19	4	13	2	+2	25
8	Roma	19	6	7	6	+1	25
9	Sampdoria	19	5	6	8	-3	21
10	Spal	19	6	2	11	-6	20
11	Parma	18	5	4	9	-12	19
12	Sassuolo	18	4	6	8	-5	18
13	Fiorentina	19	3	8	8	-4	17
14	Frosinone	19	4	4	11	-16	16
15	Bologna	19	2	7	10	-14	13
16	Udinese	18	2	5	11	-15	11
17	Genoa	18	2	5	11	-17	11
18	Cagliari	19	2	5	12	-21	11
19	Chievo	19	1	7	11	-27	10
20	Empoli	18	1	5	12	-21	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.