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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Estoril

T T T S T

1–3

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,0

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 20%

30%

10%

Points per game

1,1

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

25%

45%

Both score Ø 38%

35%

40%

Average goals

2,2

2,4

Scored

0,9

0,6

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

47% Possession 53%

13 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 19

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 14. · Pacos Ferreira 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	20	17	2	1	+39	53
2	Porto	20	15	3	2	+35	48
3	Sp Braga	20	15	1	4	+25	46
4	Sp Lisbon	20	12	2	6	+19	38
5	Guimaraes	20	10	3	7	-1	33
6	Casa Pia	20	9	4	7	-2	31
7	Arouca	20	8	6	6	-5	30
8	Vizela	21	7	5	9	+2	26
9	Chaves	20	6	8	6	-5	26
10	Boavista	20	7	5	8	-8	26
11	Rio Ave	20	6	6	8	-4	24
12	Gil Vicente	21	6	5	10	-7	23
13	Portimonense	20	7	2	11	-10	23
14	Estoril	20	6	4	10	-8	22
15	Famalicao	20	6	3	11	-10	21
16	Santa Clara	20	3	6	11	-12	15
17	Maritimo	20	3	4	13	-24	13
18	Pacos Ferreira	20	2	3	15	-24	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	9	1	0	+24	28
2	Porto	9	8	0	1	+25	24
3	Sp Lisbon	10	8	0	2	+20	24
4	Guimaraes	11	7	2	2	+5	23
5	Sp Braga	9	6	1	2	+13	19
6	Arouca	11	6	1	4	+1	19
7	Boavista	11	5	4	2	+0	19
8	Rio Ave	10	5	1	4	+3	16
9	Famalicao	10	5	1	4	+2	16
10	Vizela	10	4	2	4	+5	14
11	Casa Pia	10	4	2	4	+0	14
12	Portimonense	10	4	2	4	-1	14
13	Gil Vicente	11	3	4	4	-2	13
14	Chaves	9	2	5	2	+0	11
15	Estoril	9	3	2	4	-4	11
16	Santa Clara	10	2	4	4	-6	10
17	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-5	8
18	Pacos Ferreira	11	1	2	8	-13	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	11	9	0	2	+12	27
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+15	25
3	Porto	11	7	3	1	+10	24
4	Casa Pia	10	5	2	3	-2	17
5	Chaves	11	4	3	4	-5	15
6	Sp Lisbon	10	4	2	4	-1	14
7	Vizela	11	3	3	5	-3	12
8	Estoril	11	3	2	6	-4	11
9	Arouca	9	2	5	2	-6	11
10	Gil Vicente	10	3	1	6	-5	10
11	Guimaraes	9	3	1	5	-6	10
12	Portimonense	10	3	0	7	-9	9
13	Rio Ave	10	1	5	4	-7	8
14	Boavista	9	2	1	6	-8	7
15	Santa Clara	10	1	2	7	-6	5
16	Famalicao	10	1	2	7	-12	5
17	Maritimo	10	1	2	7	-19	5
18	Pacos Ferreira	9	1	1	7	-11	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.