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Bundesliga

Referee: H Osmers

Leverkusen

S S S S S

5–0

Full-time

Werder Bremen

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Werder Bremen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 58%

86%

29%

Points per game

2,7

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

71%

54%

Both score Ø 54%

50%

57%

Average goals

3,1

2,9

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,30 xG 0,69

56% Possession 44%

19 Shots 7

10 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 0

5 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 4

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 1. · Werder Bremen 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	28	24	4	0	+50	+35.1	76
2	Bayern Munich	29	20	3	6	+46	+51.9	63
3	Stuttgart	29	20	3	6	+33	+31.0	63
4	RB Leipzig	29	17	5	7	+34	+25.3	56
5	Dortmund	29	16	8	5	+23	+11.2	56
6	Ein Frankfurt	29	10	12	7	+4	-4.5	42
7	Augsburg	29	10	9	10	+1	-4.2	39
8	Freiburg	29	11	6	12	-11	-2.5	39
9	Hoffenheim	29	10	6	13	-8	-10.2	36
10	Heidenheim	29	8	10	11	-8	-21.1	34
11	M'gladbach	29	7	10	12	-6	-5.2	31
12	Werder Bremen	28	8	7	13	-8	-8.5	31
13	Union Berlin	29	8	5	16	-20	-10.4	29
14	Wolfsburg	29	7	7	15	-16	-3.2	28
15	Bochum	29	5	12	12	-25	-18.7	27
16	Mainz	29	5	11	13	-17	-1.4	26
17	FC Koln	29	4	10	15	-28	-29.5	22
18	Darmstadt	29	2	8	19	-44	-35.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	14	12	2	0	+30	+24.5	38
2	Bayern Munich	15	12	1	2	+38	+32.8	37
3	Stuttgart	15	11	3	1	+29	+24.7	36
4	RB Leipzig	15	10	3	2	+25	+19.9	33
5	Dortmund	14	8	2	4	+7	+11.5	26
6	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	7	1	+10	+5.3	25
7	Augsburg	15	6	6	3	+4	+0.1	24
8	Heidenheim	14	6	4	4	+2	-5.3	22
9	Bochum	15	4	8	3	+1	+2.3	20
10	Freiburg	14	5	5	4	-1	+6.1	20
11	Union Berlin	14	6	2	6	-4	-3.8	20
12	Mainz	15	5	4	6	+2	+10.4	19
13	M'gladbach	15	5	4	6	+1	+5.5	19
14	Werder Bremen	14	5	3	6	-1	-0.1	18
15	Wolfsburg	14	4	4	6	-2	-0.4	16
16	Hoffenheim	14	4	4	6	-3	+1.8	16
17	FC Koln	14	3	3	8	-12	-10.5	12
18	Darmstadt	15	1	3	11	-22	-10.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	14	12	2	0	+20	+10.6	38
2	Dortmund	15	8	6	1	+16	-0.3	30
3	Stuttgart	14	9	0	5	+4	+6.3	27
4	Bayern Munich	14	8	2	4	+8	+19.1	26
5	RB Leipzig	14	7	2	5	+9	+5.4	23
6	Hoffenheim	15	6	2	7	-5	-12.0	20
7	Freiburg	15	6	1	8	-10	-8.6	19
8	Ein Frankfurt	15	4	5	6	-6	-9.8	17
9	Augsburg	14	4	3	7	-3	-4.3	15
10	Werder Bremen	14	3	4	7	-7	-8.3	13
11	M'gladbach	14	2	6	6	-7	-10.8	12
12	Heidenheim	15	2	6	7	-10	-15.8	12
13	Wolfsburg	15	3	3	9	-14	-2.7	12
14	FC Koln	15	1	7	7	-16	-18.9	10
15	Union Berlin	15	2	3	10	-16	-6.6	9
16	Darmstadt	14	1	5	8	-22	-24.5	8
17	Mainz	14	0	7	7	-19	-11.8	7
18	Bochum	14	1	4	9	-26	-21.0	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.