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Bundesliga

Referee: D Aytekin

Werder Bremen

S T S U T

1–2

Full-time

Dortmund

S U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Werder Bremen Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

54%

58%

Both score Ø 59%

54%

63%

Average goals

2,9

3,3

Scored

1,4

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,82 xG 1,17

45% Possession 55%

15 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

6 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Werder Bremen 9. · Dortmund 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	24	20	4	0	+45	+26.7	64
2	Bayern Munich	25	18	3	4	+44	+46.9	57
3	Stuttgart	25	17	2	6	+26	+26.3	53
4	RB Leipzig	25	14	4	7	+24	+20.0	46
5	Dortmund	24	12	8	4	+18	+10.1	44
6	Ein Frankfurt	24	9	10	5	+7	-4.6	37
7	Hoffenheim	24	9	6	9	-1	-1.8	33
8	Augsburg	25	8	8	9	-1	-3.9	32
9	Werder Bremen	24	8	6	10	-4	-6.7	30
10	Freiburg	24	8	6	10	-12	-0.6	30
11	Heidenheim	25	7	7	11	-9	-19.4	28
12	M'gladbach	25	6	9	10	-4	-4.1	27
13	Wolfsburg	24	6	7	11	-9	-2.9	25
14	Union Berlin	25	7	4	14	-18	-8.2	25
15	Bochum	24	5	10	9	-21	-17.5	25
16	FC Koln	25	3	9	13	-23	-25.9	18
17	Mainz	25	2	10	13	-26	-6.0	16
18	Darmstadt	25	2	7	16	-36	-28.6	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	11	1	1	+38	+30.8	34
2	Leverkusen	12	10	2	0	+27	+20.2	32
3	Stuttgart	13	10	2	1	+26	+22.3	32
4	RB Leipzig	13	9	2	2	+22	+17.2	29
5	Dortmund	12	7	2	3	+6	+9.3	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	5	1	+8	+3.3	20
7	Freiburg	12	5	5	2	+3	+8.2	20
8	Augsburg	13	5	5	3	+2	-0.8	20
9	M'gladbach	13	5	4	4	+5	+5.9	19
10	Werder Bremen	12	5	3	4	+2	+1.0	18
11	Bochum	12	4	6	2	+2	+1.4	18
12	Heidenheim	12	5	3	4	+1	-5.5	18
13	Union Berlin	12	5	2	5	-4	-1.2	17
14	Wolfsburg	12	4	4	4	+2	-1.2	16
15	Hoffenheim	12	3	4	5	-2	+4.4	13
16	Mainz	12	2	4	6	-7	+4.0	10
17	FC Koln	12	2	3	7	-9	-9.2	9
18	Darmstadt	13	1	3	9	-18	-8.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	12	10	2	0	+18	+6.5	32
2	Bayern Munich	12	7	2	3	+6	+16.2	23
3	Dortmund	12	5	6	1	+12	+0.8	21
4	Stuttgart	12	7	0	5	+0	+4.0	21
5	Hoffenheim	12	6	2	4	+1	-6.2	20
6	RB Leipzig	12	5	2	5	+2	+2.9	17
7	Ein Frankfurt	13	4	5	4	-1	-7.9	17
8	Augsburg	12	3	3	6	-3	-3.0	12
9	Werder Bremen	12	3	3	6	-6	-7.7	12
10	Heidenheim	13	2	4	7	-10	-13.9	10
11	Freiburg	12	3	1	8	-15	-8.8	10
12	Wolfsburg	12	2	3	7	-11	-1.7	9
13	FC Koln	13	1	6	6	-14	-16.7	9
14	M'gladbach	12	1	5	6	-9	-10.0	8
15	Union Berlin	13	2	2	9	-14	-7.0	8
16	Darmstadt	12	1	4	7	-18	-20.4	7
17	Bochum	12	1	4	7	-23	-18.8	7
18	Mainz	13	0	6	7	-19	-10.0	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.