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DFB-Pokal

Referee: C Dingert

Leverkusen

U S S S S

4–0

Full-time

Fortuna Dusseldorf

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Fortuna Dusseldorf

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

2,3

2,5

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — DFB-Pokal · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 88%

100%

75%

Points per game

3,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 88%

75%

100%

Average goals

6,0

5,0

Scored

4,8

3,3

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+3,5

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

71% Possession 29%

22 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 1

5 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 2. · Fortuna Dusseldorf 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Kaiserslautern	5	5	0	0	+12	15
2	Leverkusen	4	4	0	0	+14	12
3	FC Saarbrücken	5	4	0	1	+3	12
4	St Pauli	4	3	1	0	+9	10
5	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	3	1	0	+6	10
6	M'gladbach	4	3	0	1	+9	9
7	Stuttgart	4	3	0	1	+6	9
8	Hertha	4	2	1	1	+6	7
9	Nurnberg	3	2	0	1	+7	6
10	Paderborn	3	2	0	1	+7	6
11	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+7	6
12	Wolfsburg	3	2	0	1	+6	6
13	Dortmund	3	2	0	1	+4	6
14	FC 08 Homburg	3	2	0	1	+1	6
15	Hamburg	3	1	2	0	+1	5
16	Holstein Kiel	2	1	1	0	+2	4
17	Magdeburg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
18	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+6	3
19	Bayern Munich	2	1	0	1	+3	3
20	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	+3	3
21	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	+2	3
22	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	+1	3
24	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
25	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
27	SpVgg Unterhaching	2	1	0	1	-1	3
28	FC Viktoria Koln	2	1	0	1	-1	3
29	Mainz	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Bielefeld	2	0	2	0	+0	2
31	Hannover	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Bochum	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	FSV Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Hansa Rostock	2	0	1	1	-1	1
35	Sandhausen	2	0	1	1	-3	1
36	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Regensburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Karlsruhe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Elversberg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Braunschweig	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Illertissen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Oberachern	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	FC Gutersloh	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	VfB Lubeck	1	0	0	1	-3	0
50	Darmstadt	1	0	0	1	-3	0
51	Preußen Münster	1	0	0	1	-4	0
52	Balingen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
53	FC Astoria Walldorf	1	0	0	1	-4	0
54	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
55	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-5	0
56	Atlas Delmenhorst	1	0	0	1	-5	0
57	TuS RW Koblenz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
58	Makkabi	1	0	0	1	-6	0
59	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-7	0
60	Bersenbrück	1	0	0	1	-7	0
61	Lokomotive Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-7	0
62	Oberneuland	1	0	0	1	-8	0
63	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
64	Rostocker FC	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	FC Saarbrücken	5	4	0	1	+3	12
2	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Kaiserslautern	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	M'gladbach	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	FC 08 Homburg	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Hertha	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	St Pauli	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Nurnberg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	SpVgg Unterhaching	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	FC Viktoria Koln	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Bielefeld	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Holstein Kiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	FSV Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Sandhausen	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Regensburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Elversberg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Braunschweig	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Illertissen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Oberachern	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	FC Gutersloh	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	VfB Lubeck	1	0	0	1	-3	0
31	Preußen Münster	1	0	0	1	-4	0
32	Balingen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
33	FC Astoria Walldorf	1	0	0	1	-4	0
34	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
35	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-5	0
36	Atlas Delmenhorst	1	0	0	1	-5	0
37	TuS RW Koblenz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
38	Makkabi	1	0	0	1	-6	0
39	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-7	0
40	Bersenbrück	1	0	0	1	-7	0
41	Lokomotive Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-7	0
42	Oberneuland	1	0	0	1	-8	0
43	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
44	Rostocker FC	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Kaiserslautern	3	3	0	0	+9	9
3	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+11	6
4	St Pauli	2	2	0	0	+8	6
5	Paderborn	3	2	0	1	+7	6
6	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+7	6
7	Hamburg	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Magdeburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+6	3
10	Nurnberg	2	1	0	1	+6	3
11	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+6	3
12	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+5	3
13	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+5	3
14	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	+3	3
15	Dortmund	2	1	0	1	+3	3
16	Bayern Munich	2	1	0	1	+3	3
17	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	+3	3
18	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	+2	3
19	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Holstein Kiel	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	+1	3
22	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	+0	3
24	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
25	Mainz	2	1	0	1	-2	3
26	Hannover	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Bochum	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Hansa Rostock	2	0	1	1	-1	1
29	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Karlsruhe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Darmstadt	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.