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Bundesliga

Referee: S Jablonski

M'gladbach

T T T S T

4–2

Full-time

Dortmund

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

M'gladbach Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,2

This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 47%

36%

57%

Points per game

1,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

71%

57%

Both score Ø 54%

71%

36%

Average goals

3,3

2,9

Scored

1,7

1,6

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

39% Possession 61%

11 Shots 20

6 Shots on target 10

1 Blocked shots 2

8 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 9

3 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match M'gladbach 9. · Dortmund 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	9	4	1	+34	31
2	Union Berlin	14	8	3	3	+7	27
3	Freiburg	14	8	3	3	+5	27
4	Ein Frankfurt	14	8	2	4	+8	26
5	RB Leipzig	14	7	4	3	+8	25
6	Dortmund	14	8	1	5	+6	25
7	Werder Bremen	14	6	3	5	-1	21
8	Wolfsburg	14	5	5	4	+3	20
9	M'gladbach	14	5	4	5	+2	19
10	Hoffenheim	14	5	3	6	+1	18
11	Mainz	14	5	3	6	-5	18
12	FC Koln	14	4	5	5	-6	17
13	Leverkusen	14	4	3	7	-3	15
14	Augsburg	14	4	3	7	-7	15
15	Stuttgart	14	3	5	6	-7	14
16	Hertha	14	2	5	7	-5	11
17	Bochum	14	3	1	10	-23	10
18	Schalke 04	14	2	3	9	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	7	6	1	0	+14	19
2	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	+20	17
3	Union Berlin	7	5	2	0	+8	17
4	Dortmund	7	5	1	1	+10	16
5	M'gladbach	7	5	0	2	+8	15
6	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	1	3	+5	13
7	Freiburg	6	4	1	1	+4	13
8	Wolfsburg	7	3	3	1	+5	12
9	FC Koln	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Stuttgart	8	3	2	3	+1	11
11	Werder Bremen	7	3	1	3	+2	10
12	Hoffenheim	7	3	1	3	+0	10
13	Bochum	7	3	1	3	-5	10
14	Leverkusen	7	2	2	3	+4	8
15	Hertha	7	1	4	2	-1	7
16	Schalke 04	7	2	1	4	-8	7
17	Mainz	6	1	3	2	-1	6
18	Augsburg	7	1	2	4	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	4	2	1	+14	14
2	Freiburg	8	4	2	2	+1	14
3	Ein Frankfurt	6	4	1	1	+3	13
4	Mainz	8	4	0	4	-4	12
5	Werder Bremen	7	3	2	2	-3	11
6	Augsburg	7	3	1	3	+0	10
7	Union Berlin	7	3	1	3	-1	10
8	Dortmund	7	3	0	4	-4	9
9	Hoffenheim	7	2	2	3	+1	8
10	Wolfsburg	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Leverkusen	7	2	1	4	-7	7
12	RB Leipzig	7	1	3	3	-6	6
13	FC Koln	7	1	3	3	-8	6
14	Hertha	7	1	1	5	-4	4
15	M'gladbach	7	0	4	3	-6	4
16	Stuttgart	6	0	3	3	-8	3
17	Schalke 04	7	0	2	5	-9	2
18	Bochum	7	0	0	7	-18	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.