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Championship

Referee: D Whitestone

Watford

S U S T S

1–0

Full-time

Millwall

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,7

2,2

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

0,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

This season — Championship · 43/43 matches

Win Ø 46%

58%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

30%

35%

Both score Ø 43%

37%

49%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

55% Possession 45%

13 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 19

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 2. · Millwall 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	43	27	9	7	+34	90
2	Watford	43	25	10	8	+32	85
3	Bournemouth	42	22	11	9	+32	77
4	Barnsley	41	22	8	11	+13	74
5	Brentford	40	19	14	7	+30	71
6	Swansea	40	20	9	11	+14	69
7	Reading	43	19	11	13	+11	68
8	QPR	43	17	11	15	+0	62
9	Cardiff	43	16	13	14	+12	61
10	Middlesbrough	43	17	9	17	+3	60
11	Millwall	43	14	17	12	-2	59
12	Luton	42	16	9	17	-10	57
13	Stoke	43	14	14	15	-2	56
14	Preston	43	15	7	21	-11	52
15	Coventry	43	13	12	18	-16	51
16	Bristol City	43	15	6	22	-16	51
17	Blackburn	43	13	11	19	+5	50
18	Nott'm Forest	43	12	14	17	-7	50
19	Birmingham	43	12	13	18	-18	49
20	Huddersfield	43	12	11	20	-18	47
21	Sheffield Weds	43	12	9	22	-19	45
22	Derby	43	11	10	22	-20	43
23	Rotherham	41	11	6	24	-14	39
24	Wycombe	43	9	10	24	-33	37

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	21	17	2	2	+29	53
2	Norwich	22	13	6	3	+21	45
3	Bournemouth	21	13	3	5	+19	42
4	Reading	21	12	2	7	+10	38
5	Barnsley	20	11	5	4	+9	38
6	Swansea	21	10	6	5	+8	36
7	Brentford	19	9	8	2	+15	35
8	Middlesbrough	21	10	4	7	+6	34
9	QPR	21	10	4	7	+5	34
10	Coventry	21	9	7	5	+4	34
11	Stoke	22	9	5	8	+3	32
12	Sheffield Weds	22	8	7	7	+5	31
13	Luton	21	8	7	6	+2	31
14	Huddersfield	22	8	6	8	+5	30
15	Blackburn	21	7	7	7	+3	28
16	Millwall	22	6	10	6	-3	28
17	Cardiff	21	7	5	9	+10	26
18	Nott'm Forest	21	6	7	8	-2	25
19	Derby	21	6	6	9	-5	24
20	Bristol City	21	7	3	11	-9	24
21	Preston	22	6	5	11	-5	23
22	Wycombe	22	6	5	11	-12	23
23	Birmingham	22	6	4	12	-15	22
24	Rotherham	22	5	3	14	-9	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	21	14	3	4	+13	45
2	Brentford	21	10	6	5	+15	36
3	Barnsley	21	11	3	7	+4	36
4	Bournemouth	21	9	8	4	+13	35
5	Cardiff	22	9	8	5	+2	35
6	Swansea	19	10	3	6	+6	33
7	Watford	22	8	8	6	+3	32
8	Millwall	21	8	7	6	+1	31
9	Reading	22	7	9	6	+1	30
10	Preston	21	9	2	10	-6	29
11	QPR	22	7	7	8	-5	28
12	Birmingham	21	6	9	6	-3	27
13	Bristol City	22	8	3	11	-7	27
14	Middlesbrough	22	7	5	10	-3	26
15	Luton	21	8	2	11	-12	26
16	Nott'm Forest	22	6	7	9	-5	25
17	Stoke	21	5	9	7	-5	24
18	Blackburn	22	6	4	12	+2	22
19	Rotherham	19	6	3	10	-5	21
20	Derby	22	5	4	13	-15	19
21	Coventry	22	4	5	13	-20	17
22	Huddersfield	21	4	5	12	-23	17
23	Wycombe	21	3	5	13	-21	14
24	Sheffield Weds	21	4	2	15	-24	14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.