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Bundesliga

Referee: J Weinberger

Sturm Graz

T S U S S

1–1

Full-time

Salzburg

U S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz Salzburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 50%

57%

43%

Points per game

1,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

52%

61%

Both score Ø 57%

52%

61%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,87 xG 1,26

47% Possession 53%

14 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sturm Graz 1. · Salzburg 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	23	13	2	8	+10	+7.3	41
2	LASK	23	11	5	7	+2	+6.4	38
3	Salzburg	23	10	7	6	+15	+8.9	37
4	SK Rapid	23	10	6	7	+2	-3.0	36
5	Austria Vienna	23	11	3	9	+1	+1.5	36
6	Hartberg	23	8	10	5	+5	-5.2	34
7	Altach	23	8	8	7	+1	-4.1	32
8	Tirol	23	8	7	8	+0	+4.7	31
9	Ried	23	9	4	10	-3	-2.0	31
10	Wolfsberger AC	23	7	5	11	-3	-10.4	26
11	Grazer AK	23	5	8	10	-12	-1.6	23
12	BW Linz	23	4	3	16	-18	-2.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Altach	12	6	5	1	+6	-0.2	23
2	LASK	12	7	2	3	+3	+4.3	23
3	Salzburg	12	5	3	4	+7	+5.2	18
4	Tirol	11	5	3	3	+4	+3.2	18
5	Ried	12	5	3	4	+0	-0.4	18
6	SK Rapid	11	5	2	4	+2	-1.6	17
7	Grazer AK	12	4	5	3	+1	+2.3	17
8	Austria Vienna	12	5	2	5	-4	+0.8	17
9	Hartberg	11	4	4	3	+2	+0.7	16
10	Sturm Graz	11	5	1	5	-2	+2.3	16
11	Wolfsberger AC	11	4	3	4	+2	-3.3	15
12	BW Linz	11	3	1	7	-4	-0.8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	12	8	1	3	+12	+5.1	25
2	Salzburg	11	5	4	2	+8	+3.8	19
3	Austria Vienna	11	6	1	4	+5	+0.7	19
4	SK Rapid	12	5	4	3	+0	-1.4	19
5	Hartberg	12	4	6	2	+3	-6.0	18
6	LASK	11	4	3	4	-1	+2.0	15
7	Ried	11	4	1	6	-3	-1.6	13
8	Tirol	12	3	4	5	-4	+1.6	13
9	Wolfsberger AC	12	3	2	7	-5	-7.1	11
10	Altach	11	2	3	6	-5	-3.9	9
11	Grazer AK	11	1	3	7	-13	-3.9	6
12	BW Linz	12	1	2	9	-14	-1.6	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.