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Bundesliga
Referee: H Lechner
Salzburg
S U S S T
1–1
Full-time
Sturm Graz
S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salzburg Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
1,8
2,0
Scored
1,0
1,2
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 17/17 matches
Win Ø 68%
71%
65%
Points per game
2,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
47%
47%
Both score Ø 38%
29%
47%
Average goals
2,6
2,4
Scored
2,0
1,6
Conceded
0,6
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,4
+0,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%
17 Shots 7
4 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 3
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 6
2 Offside 3
10 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Salzburg 1. · Sturm Graz 2. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Salzburg 17 12 3 2 +24 39
2 Sturm Graz 17 11 4 2 +16 37
3 LASK 17 9 5 3 +10 32
4 Hartberg 17 8 5 4 +7 29
5 A. Klagenfurt 17 6 8 3 +0 26
6 SK Rapid 17 6 6 5 +12 24
7 Wolfsberger AC 17 6 5 6 -1 23
8 Austria Vienna 17 5 6 6 +0 21
9 BW Linz 17 4 5 8 -11 17
10 Altach 17 4 4 9 -11 16
11 Tirol 17 3 2 12 -14 11
12 A. Lustenau 17 0 3 14 -32 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

16. Sep -23 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 2–2 21. May -23 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 2–1 23. Apr -23 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 0–2 22. Oct -22 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 0–0 30. Jul -22 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 2–1

Match report

Salzburg Sturm Graz
1–0 P. Ratkov ⚽
M. Kjærgaard
15′
Mamady Diambou 🟨
33′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 D. Affengruber
↦ T. Horvat
Fernando 🟨
47′
L. Gourna-Douath 🔁
↦ F. Daniliuc
66′
66′
🔁 W. Bøving
↦ M. Biereth
A. Daghim 🔁
↦ Fernando
67′
D. Guindo 🔁
↦ M. Kjærgaard
74′
L. Sučić 🔁
↦ M. Bidstrup
75′
76′
🔁 S. Włodarczyk
↦ D. Lavalée
76′
🔁 M. Johnston
↦ J. Gazibegović
80′
⚽ O. Kiteishvili 1–1
M. Johnston
R. Šimić 🔁
↦ P. Ratkov
90′
90′
🔁 S. Hierländer
↦ M. Sarkaria
91′
🟨 David Schnegg
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Salzburg

3-4-1-2
24 A. Schlager G
22 O. Solet D
25 F. Daniliuc D
31 S. Pavlović D
17 A. Ulmer M
18 M. Bidstrup M
15 M. Diambou M
14 M. Kjærgaard M
30 O. Gloukh F
11 Fernando F
21 P. Ratkov F
Bench (7)
27 L. Gourna-Douath
28 A. Daghim
29 D. Guindo
10 L. Sučić
23 R. Šimić
13 T. Horn
4 H. Blank

Coach: G. Struber

Sturm Graz

4-3-1-2
16 V. Jaroš G
22 J. Gazibegović D
5 G. Wüthrich D
24 D. Lavalée D
28 D. Schnegg D
19 T. Horvat M
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič M
8 A. Prass M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
11 M. Sarkaria F
18 M. Biereth F
Bench (7)
42 D. Affengruber
15 W. Bøving
9 S. Włodarczyk
2 M. Johnston
25 S. Hierländer
36 A. Camara
31 L. Marić

Coach: C. Ilzer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
–
🔒
U ✓
–
🔒
B
–
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

H Lechner · 116 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.