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Premiership
Referee: D Nicolson
Motherwell
T U S S T
3–0
Full-time
Kilmarnock
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Motherwell Kilmarnock
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,0
3,8
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
2,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,2
This season — Premiership · 36/36 matches
Win Ø 35%
36%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
72%
44%
Both score Ø 54%
61%
47%
Average goals
2,9
2,9
Scored
1,2
1,3
Conceded
1,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

69% Possession 31%
24 Shots 14
8 Shots on target 3
7 Blocked shots 8
3 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 4
2 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 7
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Motherwell 8. · Kilmarnock 9. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Celtic 36 28 4 4 +82 88
2 Rangers 36 21 8 7 +37 71
3 Hibernian 36 15 11 10 +12 56
4 Aberdeen 36 15 8 13 -8 53
5 Dundee United 36 14 8 14 -8 50
6 St Mirren 36 14 6 16 -6 48
7 Hearts 36 13 7 16 +3 46
8 Motherwell 36 13 6 17 -20 45
9 Kilmarnock 36 12 8 16 -15 44
10 Dundee 37 10 8 19 -22 38
11 Ross County 37 9 9 19 -28 36
12 ST Johnstone 36 9 5 22 -27 32

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

5. Apr -25 Kilmarnock – Motherwell 2–0 8. Jan -25 Kilmarnock – Motherwell 0–0 20. Dec -24 Motherwell – Kilmarnock 1–1 3. Feb -24 Motherwell – Kilmarnock 1–1 4. Nov -23 Kilmarnock – Motherwell 1–0

Match report

Motherwell Kilmarnock
28′
ℹ️ Robbie Deas
VAR: Card upgrade
29′
🟥 Robbie Deas
Half-time 0–0
L. Armstrong 🔁
↦ H. Paton
46′
46′
🔁 R. McKenzie
↦ B. Anderson
46′
🔁 M. Watkins
↦ K. Vassell
60′
🔁 L. Polworth
↦ R. McKenzie
M. Ebiye 🔁
↦ T. Watt
63′
71′
🔁 C. Ramsay
↦ D. Armstrong
1–0 L. Armstrong ⚽
S. O'Donnell
77′
D. Thompson 🔁
↦ T. Sparrow
78′
80′
🟨 David Watson
2–0 C. Slattery ⚽
M. Ebiye
83′
3–0 L. Armstrong ⚽
L. Miller
86′
D. Zdravkovski 🔁
↦ L. Miller
88′
W. Dickson 🔁
↦ C. Slattery
88′
89′
🔁 Cole Burke I
↦ F. Murray
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Motherwell

3-4-3
13 A. Oxborough G
15 D. Casey D
2 S. O'Donnell D
3 S. Seddon D
7 T. Sparrow M
38 L. Miller M
11 A. Halliday M
23 E. Wilson M
8 C. Slattery F
52 T. Watt F
12 H. Paton F
Bench (9)
59 L. Armstrong
24 M. Ebiye
56 D. Thompson
6 D. Zdravkovski
58 W. Dickson
54 K. Andrews
55 T. Maswanhise
88 E. Balcombe
90 Jair Tavares

Coach: M. Wimmer

Kilmarnock

4-4-2
1 K. O'Hara G
5 L. Mayo D
6 R. Deas D
17 S. Findlay D
3 C. Ndaba D
11 D. Armstrong M
12 D. Watson M
22 L. Donnelly M
15 F. Murray M
19 B. Anderson F
9 K. Vassell F
Bench (9)
7 R. McKenzie
23 M. Watkins
31 L. Polworth
21 C. Ramsay
37 Cole Burke I
14 G. Mackay-Steven
24 B. Wales
18 I. Cameron
20 R. McCrorie

Coach: D. McInnes

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,72
🔒
U
3,34
🔒
B
2,52
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,83
🔒
U2,5
1,96
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Nicolson · 20 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.